Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts - 1/12/19 NFL - AFC Division Round Playoffs Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts
Saturday, January 12, 2019 at 4:35 PM (Arrowhead Stadium)
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 -- Over/Under: 57
The Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs meet in AFC divisional round playoff action from Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Indianapolis Colts punched their ticket to the divisional round by shutting down the Houston Texans, defeating their division rival by a final score of 21-7. Andrew Luck threw for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception on 19 of 32 passing while Marlon Mack led the Colts’ ground attack with 24 carries for 148 yards and a touchdown. T.Y. Hilton led the Colts’ receiving group with 5 catches for 85 yards, while Dontrelle Inman had 4 grabs for 53 yards and a touchdown and Eric Ebron had a receiving touchdown of his own in the win. Defensively, Kenny Moore II and Al-Quadin Muhammad each had a sack with Moore II adding an interception as well. As a team, Indianapolis is averaging 386.2 yards of total offense and 27.1 points per game this season.
The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game as the top seed in the AFC, clinching home field through the AFC side of the playoffs with a 12-4 overall record. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while also leading the Chiefs in rushing with 272 rushing yards and Damien Williams has 256 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Tyreekl Hill leads Kansas City’s receiving corps with 1,479 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns while Travis Kelce has 103 grabs for 1,336 yards and 10 touchdowns. Defensively, Chris Jones led the Chiefs with 15.5 sacks and Dee Ford had 13 sacks while Anthony Hitchens led Kansas City with 81 tackles this season. As a team, Kansas City owns the NFL’s highest producing offense in terms of total yardage with 425.6 yards per game and the highest-scoring offense, racking up 35.3 points per game this season.
Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall while the under is 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Kansas City is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 playoff games and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall while the over is 4-0 in their last 4 games against a team with a winning record. Indianapolis is 11-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these two teams and 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams in Kansas City.
Kansas City played very well during the regular season, and is very deserving of the top seed and may very well have the NFL MVP under center in Patrick Mahomes after a stellar season. However, the Chiefs had lots of close calls down the stretch, with 4 of their last 6 games ending in a win by no more than 3 points or an outright loss. The Chiefs also hadn’t been covering much down the stretch and have a brutal track record against the spread in the postseason in recent years. Indianapolis isn’t doing it pretty, but they’re effective as the offense is producing enough and the defense is stepping up. It sounds weird, but we are getting nearly a touchdown with the hotter team, a Colts bunch that’s won 5 straight after last week and 10 of their last 11. Plus, as good as Mahomes has been, this is also his first career playoff start, so there could be some jitters as well. I’ll take a shot with Indianapolis to at the very least keep this one close, if not pull off another outright upset.