Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots - 1/20/19 NFL Playoffs Pick, Odds, and Prediction
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 6:40 PM (Arrowhead Stadium)
Kansas City Chiefs -3 O/U: 57
The New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs will meet up in the NFL’s AFC Championship Game on Sunday.
As for the Patriots, they went 11-5 during the regular season for the No. 2 slot in the conference. After consecutive late-season losses to the Dolphins and Steelers, New England finished things up by putting away the Bills and Jets to secure that first-round bye.
In the Divisional Round playoff game, New England roared out to a big start and didn’t end up having much to contend with against the Chargers, who couldn’t get out of their own way. The final score there ended up being a Pats victory 41-28.
In that Divisional win, Pats QB Tom Brady had 343 yards and one TD, while Sony Michel stole the show on 129 yards and three scores. Julien Edelman put up 151 yards on nine catches to lead the New England receivers.
Over on the Chiefs’ side, they finished the regular season with a 12-4 overall record. Kansas City went 1-2 over their last three games however, falling to the Chargers and Seahawks before getting back on track with a 35-3 win over the Raiders.
In the Divisional Round versus the Colts this past Saturday, Kansas City took a dominant 31-13 victory to move on. In that one, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes put up 278 yards on 27-of-41 passing, and Damien Williams led the rush with 129 yards and a score. KC’s top receiver was Travis Kelce with seven grabs for 108 yards.
The Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games and 19-8 ATS versus a team with a winning record. New England is 5-1 ATS in the last five games in January and 26-12 ATS in their last 38 versus the AFC.
Meanwhile, Kansas City is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 versus the AFC and 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 on grass. The Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight overall and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
Kansas City exorcised some demons with that big win over the Colts, and they’ll come into this one with all kinds of confidence in front of their home crowd. Mahomes isn’t going to get by here with zero TD passes however, so expect the youngster to take some opportune shots downfield.
The last time these teams met, it was an instant classic, with the Pats eking out a 43-40 victory. I can easily see a similar scenario unfolding here—probably not as high-scoring thanks to the foul weather and cold temperatures, but an intense battle nonetheless.
I’m going to stick with the experienced Patriots finding a way to win here and thus cover.