Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts - 9/8/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts - 9/8/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, September 8, 2019 at 3:05 PM (Dignity Health Sports Park)

The Line: Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 -- Over/Under: 44

TV: CBS

The Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers meet Sunday in NFL action at Dignity Health Sports Park.

The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a 10-win season and hope to make playoffs back-to-back years for the first time since 2013-14. The Indianapolis Colts have split their last six road games. The Indianapolis Colts haven’t won a regular season opener since the 2013 season. The Colts received a major blow with the sudden retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck, probably a top-five QB when healthy and fresh off a season where he threw for nearly 4,600 yards and 39 touchdowns. That makes Jacoby Brissett the starter in Indianapolis, a quarterback who has 528 career pass attempts and 13 touchdowns with seven interceptions. It’s a massive drop-off and seriously hurts the Colts chances of being a playoff team. The good news is the Colts do have reliable playmakers in Marlon Mack, TY Hilton and Eric Ebron, so if Brissett can just manage the game, this offense is capable of doing things. The Colts were top-10 last year in scoring defense and return their top-14 tacklers. The Colts are a respectable squad, but the outlook on this team, one you could have argued was a dark horse Super Bowl contender, is a lot less attractive without Luck at QB.

The Los Angeles Chargers won 12 games last year and have a chance at back-to-back double-digit winning seasons for the first time since 2006-07. The Los Angeles Chargers have won five of their last six home games. The Los Angeles Chargers have lost five of their last six regular season openers. Outside of the Melvin Gordon holdout and the injury to Derwin James, the Chargers have last years core intact and are a popular pick to make it out of the AFC this season. Phillip Rivers has a reliable offensive line protecting him and one of the more underrated wide receiver duos in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. A Chargers offense that was sixth in points scored and 11th in total yards, this side of the ball should remain explosive. Defensively, the loss of James does hurt, but Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram form one of the best pass rushing tandems in the league, while Casey Hayward and Adrian Phillips hold down a formidable secondary.

The Colts are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 1. The Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. The Colts are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. The under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 home games. The under is 7-2 in Colts last 9 games overall.

The Indianapolis Colts have been horrible in their season openers these last several years both SU and ATS, and I'm pretty sure their star quarterback suddenly retiring with a week and a half before this game doesn't help matters. The Los Angeles Chargers are loaded on both sides of the ball to the point they were my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. There's not much weakness on this Chargers team and maybe last years success will convince fans to actually show up this year. This is a lot of chalk to lay in a season opener when I'm still feeling teams out and deciding where each team truly stands, but losing Luck is a massive blow. If the Chargers are the team I think they are, they make an early statement with a comfortable home victory.

Randy’s Pick Los Angeles Chargers -6.5

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.