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Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots - 1/13/19 NFL - AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Date & Time Sunday January 13, 2019, 1:05 PM (EST)
Location
Gillette Stadium
1 Patriot Pl, Foxborough, MA 02035, USA
The Line
The Line: New England Patriots -4.5 -- Over/Under: 47
TV Channel
CBS
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The Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots meet Sunday in the NFL AFC divisional playoff round at Gillette Stadium with the winner advancing to the AFC Championship against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off a wild card win over the Baltimore Ravens and have a shot to make their first conference championship since the 2007 season. The Los Angeles Chargers have won eight straight non-home games. Philip Rivers is completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,540 yards, 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Rivers has two or more touchdown passes in 14 of his last 18 games. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have combined for 1,939 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns while Tyrell Williams has 43 receptions. The Los Angeles Chargers ground game is averaging 117.1 yards per contest, and Melvin Gordon leads the way with 925 yards and 11 touchdowns. Defensively, Los Angeles is allowing 20.6 points and 333.7 yards per game. Derwin James leads the Los Angeles Chargers with 109 tackles, Melvin Ingram has nine sacks and Desmond King has three interceptions.

The New England Patriots head into the playoffs splitting their last four games and hope to make the conference championship for an eighth straight year. The New England Patriots have won all eight home games this season. Tom Brady is completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 4,355 yards, 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Brady has one or less touchdown passes in six of his last nine games. Julian Edelman and James White have combined for 1,601 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns while Rob Gronkowski has 47 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 127.3 yards per contest, and Sony Michel leads the way with 931 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 20.3 points and 359.1 yards per game. Kyle Van Noy leads the New England Patriots with 92 tackles, Trey Flowers has 7.5 sacks and Duron Harmon has four interceptions.

The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff home games, 38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 home games and 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games overall. The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The under is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 games overall. The under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games overall.

The Los Angeles Chargers have won each of their last eight non-home games and have also won outright each of their last five games as an underdog. The New England Patriots haven't lost a home game since October of 2017 and are outscoring teams by an average of 20.3 points in their last three home games. The Los Angeles Chargers have covered six of their last eight games when an underdog of at least three points. The New England Patriots have covered seven of their last 11 games when a favorite of at least three points. We've been cashing left and right on the Chargers as road underdogs and there's no reason to step placing these bets. The Chargers are arguably the most balanced team in the AFC, as they've proven they can win games in a variety of ways, and they seem to thrive in these roles where many are picking against them. The New England Patriots are never a team to doubt based on their reputation, but judging strictly the roster, this is easily one of the worst Pats teams in quite some time and one that looks awfully beatable this time of year. I get the Patriots being favored because of home field, rest and reputation, but the Chargers are the better team overall. I'm once again taking the Chargers and the points in a game they have a great chance to win outright. 

Pick:
Los Angeles Chargers +4.5

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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