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Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots - 2/3/19 NFL Super Bowl Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Patriots vs. Rams
Date & Time Sunday February 3, 2019, 6:30 PM (EST)
Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta, Georgia
The Line
Los Angeles Rams +2.5 O/U: 56.5
TV Channel
CBS
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Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams will be matching up in the NFL Super Bowl on Sunday.

New England managed an 11-5 record during the regular season, winning the AFC East for the millionth time (actually, it’s been 10 years in a row and 15 of the last 16, but who’s counting?). The Patriots won their last two games heading into the playoffs, and after earning a bye they took out the Chargers in the Divisional round 41-28, then had another epic showdown with the Chiefs in a 37-31 overtime victory during the AFC Championship Game.

In that conference championship matchup, New England’s Tom Brady logged 348 yards, one TD and two picks. Sony Michel added 113 yards and two TDs on the ground, and Julian Edelman led the Pats receivers with 96 yards from seven catches.

Over on the Rams’ side, they finished off the regular season at 13-3 despite losing consecutive games in weeks 14 and 15 to the Bears and Eagles, respectively. LA took out the Cowboys 30-22 in the Divisional Round, and then beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime during a highly controversial finish that will certainly reshape NFL rules this offseason.

In the NFC Championship Game, Rams QB Jared Goff logged 297 yards with one TD and one pick, and CJ Anderson led the rush on 44 yards from 16 carries. Brandin Cooks was the lead receiver for the Rams there on seven grabs for 107 yards.

The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games and 20-8 ATS versus a team with a winning record. New England is 39-17 ATS in their last 56 overall and 2-5 ATS in their last seven Super Bowl games.

Meanwhile, the Rams are 4-0 ATS in the last four overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six after a straight-up win. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings between these two teams and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Regardless of how excited or frustrated you are about the overtime rules, the conference championship outcomes or the fact that again New England again is again in the Super Bowl again, the points are moot and here we are.

The line on this game started out pretty thin, but it’s been steadily creeping up over the past couple of weeks toward New England’s favor. Another close game here would make sense; the Patriots’ Super Bowl appearances during this run are always close affairs: 17-14 and 21-17 against the Giants, 28-24 versus the Seahawks, 34-28 against the Falcons, 41-33 versus the Eagles, etc.

I’m anticipating another close game here, and it’ll probably follow the same script as most of the Pats’ playoff wins do: things will be tight until New England begins to build momentum after the second half. I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in the Rams’ ability to punch back here; LA seems overrated and inexperienced next to the Patriots juggernaut. The O/U number looks a little light, so that one might be fun to mess with, and otherwise I don’t have a lot of reservations about taking New England.

That said, don’t forget to have a look at the ridiculous prop bets for this game; they’re at least worth considering and will add another layer of entertainment to your Sunday evening as you bid the NFL farewell for another season.

Pick:
New England Patriots -2.5

Andrew has been with Sports Chat Place since 2012, contributing to football, baseball and basketball across the fantasy, college and professional ranks. His goal is to break down the complicated trends and numbers into a language that's accessible even if you're not a seasoned sports bettor, providing comprehensive insight that can apply to just about everyone. Follow Andrew on Twitter for links to his latest Sports Chat Place picks. 

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