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Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots - 9/15/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Date & Time Sunday September 15, 2019, 1:00 PM (EDT)
Location
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami, Florida
The Line
The Line: Miami Dolphins +18.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5
TV Channel
CBS
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Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins meet Sunday in NFL action at Hard Rock Stadium.

The New England Patriots look for a quick 2-0 start after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points Sunday night. The New England Patriots have lost three of their last four road games. Tom Brady is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 341 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Brady has three or more touchdown passes in five of his last eight games. Phillip Dorsett and Julian Edelman have combined for 178 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Josh Gordon has three receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 99 yards per contest, and Rex Burkhead leads the way with 44 yards on eight carries. Defensively, New England is allowing three points and 308 yards per game. Jason McCourty leads the New England Patriots with seven tackles, Deatrich Wise Jr. has one sack and Devin McCourty has one interception.

The Miami Dolphins have nowhere to go but up after losing to the Baltimore Ravens, 59-10. The Miami Dolphins have won six of their last nine home games. Ryan Fitzpatrick is completing 48.3 percent of his passes for 185 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Fitzpatrick has two or more touchdown passes in five of his last seven games. DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki have combined for 106 receiving yards on five catches while Preston Williams has three receptions. The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 21 yards per contest, and Kenyan Drake leads the way with 12 yards on four carries. Defensively, Miami is allowing 59 points and 643 yards per game. Eric Rowe leads the Miami Dolphins with 11 tackles, Sam Eguavoen has 0.5 sacks and Jonathan Ledbetter has one tackle for loss.

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC East and 41-17 ATS in their last 58 games overall. The Dolphins are 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 games following a ATS loss and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Miami and the favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings. The over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games overall. The under is 10-3 in Patriots last 13 games overall.

The New England Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a double-digit favorite. The Miami Dolphins have failed to cover seven of their last 11 games as a double-digit underdog. The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings between the Patriots and Dolphins, which means New England has lost four of the last five games in Miami, including the game last December when the Dolphins won on a miracle play as 9.5-point underdogs. The Dolphins have completely gutted their roster to stock up on draft picks and salary cap space in hopes of being good in two or three years. The New England Patriots are covering machines when big favorites and just added Antonio Brown to the mix. I wouldn't be surprised if this is another beatdown and there's no logical reason to back the Fins here. However, I just can't process leaving this many points on the table in a NFL game. My brain has a hard time comprehending a number this big in the NFL. I have to take them if forced to pick this game, but you should probably avoid it.

Pick:
Miami Dolphins +18.5

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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