New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - 9/29/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - 9/29/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 12:00 PM (New Era Field)

The Line: Buffalo Bills +7 -- Over/Under: 42.5

TV: CBS

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills meet Sunday in NFL action at New Era Field.

The New England Patriots look for another victory to tart 4-0 for the first time since 2015. The New England Patriots have split their last six road games. Tom Brady is completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 911 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. Brady has three or more touchdown passes in five of his last 10 games. Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett have combined for 383 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Josh Gordon has 11 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 87 yards per contest, and Rex Burkhead leads the way with 112 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, New England is allowing 5.7 points and 199 yards per game. Jamie Collins Sr. leads the New England Patriots with 19 tackles, Adam Butler has 2.5 sacks and Devin McCourty has three interceptions.

The Buffalo Bills look for a statement win to start 4-0 for the first time since 2008. The Buffalo Bills have won four of their last five home games. Josh Allen is completing 64.1 percent of his passes for 750 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. Allen has one or less touchdown passes in 12 of his last 14 games. John Brown and Cole Beasley have combined for 417 receiving yards and one touchdown while Dawson Knox has five receptions. The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 151.3 yards per contest, and Frank Gore leads the way with 164 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 15.7 points and 299.7 yards per game. Jordan Poyer leads the Buffalo Bills with 22 tackles, Jerry Hughes has 1.5 sacks and Tre'Davious White has two interceptions.

The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC, 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games and 42-18 ATS in their last 60 games overall. The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Patriots are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Buffalo and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games overall. The under is 11-4 in Patriots last 15 games overall.

The New England Patriots have covered nine of their last 14 road games when favored by at least seven points. The Buffalo Bills have failed to cover five of their last seven home games when an underdog of at least seven points. The Patriots have won the last five meetings against the Bills and are winning those games by an average of 17.6 points. The Bills seem to be on the right track and there's reason for excitement, but they've also gone up against three straight teams with quarterback issues. The New England Patriots are rolling offensively and I don't have trust the Bills can play from behind. If the line was a little larger I'd take a shot with the points. Instead, I'm forced to lay the touchdown. 

Randy’s Pick New England Patriots -7

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.