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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills - 10/2/16 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Buffalo Bills (1-2) at New England Patriots (3-0)
Date & Time Sunday October 2, 2016, 1:00 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: New England Patriots -4 -- Over/Under:
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NFL | Buffalo Bills (1-2) at New England Patriots (3-0)

Coming up in NFL Week 4 action on Sunday, October 2, from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, the Buffalo Bills will meet the New England Patriots in an AFC East divisional clash. 

Buffalo comes into this game with a 1-2 record, dropping the first pair of games on the season but bouncing back to get a win in Week 3 against the Cardinals 33-18. The defense and special teams came up big in that game, with safety Aaron Williams returning a botched field goal 53 yards for a touchdown. LeSean McCoy was also big for Buffalo in that game, grabbing 110 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries. QB Tyrod Taylor also ran in a score, and would finish 14-of-25 for 119 yards with nine rushes for 76 yards. 

On the Bills season, that gives Taylor a 47-of-77 line for 527 yards and three touchdowns, alongside 16 rushes for 112 more yards. McCoy is tops for Buffalo in the ground game with 48 attempts for 227 yards and three scores, while Marquise Goodwin owns three receptions on 10 targets for 118 yards and one TD. 

As for the Patriots, they’re sitting at 3-0—which is quite an achievement when you factor in that they’ve been missing their Hall-of-Fame QB Tom Brady for the whole season so far. New England’s most recent victory came against the Texans, a 27-0 dominating romp. Rookie QB Jacoby Brissett got the start in that one, and played well on 11-of-19 throwing for 103 yards. Brissett would add another 48 yards and a TD on eight carries. LeGarrette Blount took care of the rest in Week 3, leading the Patriots with 24 carries for 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns. 

So far this year, Blount has bagged 75 attempts for 298 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Julian Edelman leads the way in the receiving game with his 18 receptions on 23 targets for 180 yards for New England. 

The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS against a team with a winning record, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games on fieldturf. Buffalo is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six against the AFC East, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Week 4. 

Meanwhile, the Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 4, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. New England is also 4-1 ATS in their last five games on field turf, and 36-15-3 ATS in their last 54 games in October. 

Rex Ryan has been trying to conquer the Patriots for several years now, and his time is running out. New England simply doesn’t lose at home—no matter who’s in the uniforms—so this should be another Patriots victory.

New England Patriots -4

Andrew has been with Sports Chat Place since 2012, contributing to football, baseball and basketball across the fantasy, college and professional ranks. His goal is to break down the complicated trends and numbers into a language that's accessible even if you're not a seasoned sports bettor, providing comprehensive insight that can apply to just about everyone. Follow Andrew on Twitter for links to his latest Sports Chat Place picks. 

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