New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams 2/3/19 NFL Super Bowl Pick, Odds, and Prediction
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, February 3, 2019 at 6:30 PM (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
The Line: Los Angeles Rams +1 -- Over/Under: 58
The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams meet Sunday in the Super Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The New England Patriots are in the Super Bowl for a third straight year and have a chance to win their third title in franchise history. The New England Patriots have split their last six non-home games. Tom Brady is completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 4,355 yards, 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Brady has one or less touchdown passes in six of his last nine games. Julian Edelman and James White have combined for 1,601 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns while Rob Gronkowski has 47 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 127.3 yards per contest, and Sony Michel leads the way with 931 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 20.3 points and 359.1 yards per game. Kyle Van Noy leads the New England Patriots with 92 tackles, Trey Flowers has 7.5 sacks and Duron Harmon has four interceptions.
The Los Angeles Rams are in the Super Bowl for the first time since 2001 and look for their second title (1999) in franchise history. The Los Angeles Rams have won seven of their last nine non-home games. Jared Goff is completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 4,688 yards, 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Goff has two or more touchdown passes in eight of his last 13 games. Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks have combined for 2,423 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns while Todd Gurley II has 59 receptions. The Los Angeles Rams ground game is averaging 138.4 yards per contest, and Gurley leads the way with 1,251 yards and 17 touchdowns. Defensively, Los Angeles is allowing 24 points and 358.6 yards per game. Cory Littleton leads the Los Angeles Rams with 125 tackles, Aaron Donald has 20.5 sacks and John Johnson III has four interceptions.
The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Super Bowl games and 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games overall. The Rams are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. The over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games on grass. The under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games overall.
The New England Patriots are coming off probably their best win of the season and are playing their best offensively as of late, averaging 35 points in their last four games. The Los Angeles Rams have scored no less than 26 points in 10 of their last 12 games and are winning by an average of 12.25 points during their four-game winning streak. The New England Patriots have covered nine of their last 14 games as a favorite of any kind. The New England Patriots have also won 11 of their last 17 games SU when a favorite of any kind. The Los Angeles Rams have failed to cover eight of their last 11 games when an underdog of any kind. The Los Angeles Rams have also lost 12 of their last 15 games SU when an underdog of any kind. I've been saying the Rams are overrated pretty much all season long, and while that theory has burned me at times, a lot of their games come down to the wire and are often decided by a break that goes their way. It goes beyond what happened in the game against the New Orleans Saints. Give the Rams credit for finding ways to win and putting themselves in those positions, but I'm still not as high on this club as others have been. Nothing can be said about the New England Patriots that hasn't already been said, as this team has been there done that and seems to be peaking at the right time. In past years the Pats were who they were, a team that bullied the league and entered the big game as favorites. This year, it feels like the Patriots were beatable all season long, got better in the playoffs and enters the Super Bowl as a bit of an underdog, despite what the line says. I'm going to end the season sticking to my guns that the Rams aren't as good as the public gives them credit for, and I'm siding with the Patriots in this near toss-up. It's been profitable fading the Patriots when favored, but it's tough to turn this team down in a near pick em. In a game between two teams that find ways to win at all costs, I'll always give the edge to Brady and Belichick.
See you guys next season.