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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins - 9/30/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2)
Date & Time Sunday September 30, 2018, 1:00 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: New England Patriots -9.5 -- Over/Under: 48
TV Channel
CBS
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NFL | Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2)
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots will be matching up in an AFC East battle on Sunday from Gillette Stadium. 

Miami enters this game at 3-0 so far, following a (very long) win over the Titans in the opener 27-20, a messy victory over the Jets 20-12 and another W versus the Raiders 28-20 their last time out. 

In that Oakland game, Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill put up 289 yards with three TDs, and also led the team in rushing with 26 yards. Albert Wilson was the top receiver (and also tossed a 52-yard TD) with two grabs for 74 yards and a score. 

Over on the Pats’ side, they’re a surprising 1-2 right now. New England took out the Texans 27-20 in their opener, but then fell to the Jags 31-20 and a bad Detroit team 26-10 in their last game. 

Against the Lions, New England QB Tom Brady logged 133 yards, a TD and a pick, and Sony Michel was the top rusher on 14 carries for 50 yards. Rob Gronkowski was the top Pats receiver with his 51 yards on four grabs. 

The Dolphins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven following an ATS win and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a straight-up win. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last five in September and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight versus the AFC East. 

Meanwhile, the Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus the AFC East and 15-6 ATS versus a team with a winning record. New England is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in Week 4 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on turf. 

Not too many people thought the Dolphins would start out at 3-0, but here they are with a chance to assert some dominance in this division. Miami’s wins haven’t been super-impressive, but they’re getting the right marks in the win column. 

As for New England, they’re going to want to shake off the taste of that Detroit stunner, and a home game against an AFCE opponent is the way to do it. I was going to take the Pats for a bounce-back cover here, but the line is a little thick for my taste.

Pick:
Miami Dolphins +9.5

Andrew has been with Sports Chat Place since 2012, contributing to football, baseball and basketball across the fantasy, college and professional ranks. His goal is to break down the complicated trends and numbers into a language that's accessible even if you're not a seasoned sports bettor, providing comprehensive insight that can apply to just about everyone. Follow Andrew on Twitter for links to his latest Sports Chat Place picks. 

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