New York Jets at New England Patriots - 9/22/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 12:00 PM (Gillette Stadium)
The Line: New England Patriots -22 -- Over/Under: 43.5
The New York Jets and New England Patriots meet Sunday in NFL action at Gillette Stadium.
The New York Jets ned a victory here to save their season and avoid an 0-3 start. The New York Jets have lost six of their last seven road games. Luke Falk is completing 80 percent of his passes for 198 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions. Falk enters this game with 25 career pass attempts under his belt. Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson have combined for 243 receiving yards on 25 catches while Le’Veon Bell has 16 receptions. The New York Jets ground game is averaging 80.5 yards per contest, and Bell leads the way with 128 yards on 38 carries. Defensively, New York is allowing 20 points and 372.5 yards per game. Neville Hewitt leads the New York Jets with 16 tackles, Jordan Jenkins has one sack and Darryl Roberts has one interception.
The New England Patriots look for their second home win to jump out to a quick 3-0 record. The New England Patriots haven’t lost a regular season home game since October 2017. Tom Brady is completing 68.8 percent of his passes for 605 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Brady has three or more touchdown passes in five of his last nine games. Phillip Dorsett and Julian Edelman have combined for 268 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Josh Gordon has five receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 111.5 yards per contest, and Sony Michel leads the way with 97 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, New England is allowing 1.5 points and 246 yards per game. Jason McCourty leads the New England Patriots with 11 tackles, Adam Butler has two sacks and Devin McCourty has two interceptions.
The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC East and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC East, 40-16-2 ATS in their last 58 home games and 42-17 ATS in their last 59 games overall. The Jets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New England and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The under is 11-3 in Patriots last 14 games overall. The under is 6-2 in Jets last 8 vs. AFC East.
The New York Jets hav failed to cover five of their last seven games as a double-digit underdog. The New England Patriots have covered 14 of their last 17 games as a double-digit favorite. Falk should be better with a full week to prepare with the starters, but he has a horrible offensive line protecting him and there's not a lot of great skill position players he can lean on in this offense. The New England Patriots have put together back-to-back blowout victories and have been covering machines when big favorites. In fact, since 2015, the Patriots are 12-2 ATS when a double-digit home favorite. This is a ton of chalk to lay and it's not something I'd bet personally, but the numbers and trends lean toward another Pats blowout.