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NFL Pick, Prediction and Odds: 2019 Win Total For The Houston Texans

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Texans look to build on a (11-5) season which ended in an AFC South crown. QB Deshaun Watson is coming off of his best season as of late.  The young franchise QB had a pro bowl season, throwing for 26 TD and 9 Int, finishing with the 13th highest QBR. The defense comes into this season off of a very good season as they allowed the 3rd fewest points per game in 19.8 and possibly improved in the offseason. The additions of FS Tashaun Gipson and CB Bradley Robey should help support any weakness this defense may have had. If everyone is able to stay healthy on the season, this could be another championship year for the Texans. The quest for back to back AFC South crowns starts week 1 at the New Orleans Saints.

Week 1 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints are a team poised for a Super Bowl run as they return the 8th best total offense in total yards and the 3rd highest points per game in 31.5. I just see no way for the Texans to be able to match Drew Brees and company on offense as the Saints win at home.

Loss (0-1)

Week 2 vs Jacksonville Jaguars

This will be a defensive game as you have the 5th total yards allowed defense vs the 3rd ranked points per game defense in 2018. I see QB Deshaun Watson making his stamp on this game making a couple key plays outside of the pocket to outduel Nick Foles at home. Give me the Texans at home.

Win (1-1)

Week 3 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers return a red hot Phillip Rivers who ranked 7th in QBR and put together the 11th ranked offense in total yardage. This will be a QB showdown as both of these defenses are in the top echelon of the league. Give me Rivers to outduel Watson at home for a win.

Loss (1-2)

Week 4 at Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers are coming off of a disappointing (7-9) 2018 campaign. Cam Newton was very inconsistent passing the ball in this past season and has only one key playmaker in Christian McCaffrey. Although McCaffrey is very elusive, this Texans defense should be able to stop him and limit this offense.

Win (2-2)

Week 5 vs Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons had a very down 2018 season going (7-9) and missing the playoffs. The front office tried to address these issues in this first year with the drafting of two offensive linemen to give Matt Ryan more time in the pocket to find his targets down the field. I think they hit a home run with these two picks and I think it will give the Falcons the edge in this one. Take the Falcons on the road.

Loss (2-3)

Week 6 at Kansas City Chiefs

Although this looks like it will be a good matchup on paper, the Chiefs offense is just too explosive. I see no way for this defense to be able stop Patrick Mahomes and company down the stretch as the Chiefs win at home.

Loss (2-4)

Week 7 at Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts will be a scary team this upcoming season as they return QB Andrew Luck who finished with the 5th highest QBR, and guided the 11th ranked total offense in yardage and 10th ranked offense in points per game to a playoff berth and victory over the Texans. I don’t see this changing as the Colts are red hot and as long as protection holds I see this being a high scoring game where the Colts win.

Loss (2-5)

Week 8 vs Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders had the 27th worst points per game offense in 018 as well as the last ranked points per game defense. This team just didn’t improve enough in the offseason to match the Texans on either side of the ball.

Win (3-5)

Week 9 at Jacksonville Jaguars

I think the Jaguars steal this one for the simple fact that this game is in London. The Jaguars are experience veterans in London and this will be the first international trip for the Texans. Give me the Jags.

Loss (3-6)

Week 10 Bye

Week 11 at Baltimore Ravens

I think the Ravens will have a wonderful 2019 season, but I think at times you will see a defense that forces Lamar Jackson to throw the ball as a pocket passer which he is unproven at. I think that J.J. Watt and this defense will put immense pressure on Jackson and force him into several turnovers for a Texans win on the road.

Win (4-6)

Week 12 vs Indianapolis Colts

The Texans will have a chance for revenge at home in a pivotal game to determine if any playoff hopes remains. The Texans will have already seen this Colts offense once and will try to cut down the Andrew Luck passing game. I see the Texans pulling out a few stops in a home win.

Win (5-6)

Week 13 vs New England Patriots

Bill O’Brien has been terrible as a head coach against his mentor Bill Belichick. The Patriots have the better coach, offense, and overall talent to win at home. Give me the Pats.

Loss (5-7)

Week 14 vs Denver Broncos

The Broncos I believe will be in running for the #1 pick in next year’s draft at this point. Although they replaced their QB who had the 29th ranked QBR in Case Keenum, they picked up Joe Flacco who I have no belief in. This offense also lacks a serious wide receiver threat and this Texans defense should have their way in an easy win.

Win (6-7)

Week 15 at Tennessee Titans

QB Deshaun Watson comes into this season red hot off of a Pro Bowl season where he threw for 29 TD and 9 Int. This team also bodes the 3rd best points allowed per game defense with 19.8. I do not see the Titans able to move the ball on this defense as Watson is able to evade pressure for big plays down the field. Texans win.

Win (7-7)

Week 16 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Although I believe in Coach Bruce Arians track record he has had in the past with QB’s, I do not know if he will be able to do the same with Jameis Winston. He can be very reckless at time and was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick. I see Winston making a few key mistakes in a loss at home.

Win (8-7)

Week 17 vs Tennessee Titans

I see this as a repeat of their week 15 matchup as the Texans sweep the season series.

Win (9-7)

This line is right on the money, as the Texans play a tough schedule. If Deshaun Watson has a repeat performance of last year and this team shows up, the over is the way to go.

Pick:
Over 8.5 Wins

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