NFL Pick, Prediction and Odds: 2019 Win Total For The Kansas City Chiefs
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 at 12:35 PM (Arrowhead Stadium)
Over/Under 10.5 wins
The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to build on a (12-4) 2018 regular season campaign, where they were an offside penalty away from an AFC Championship crown. QB Patrick Mahomes electrified the league finishing 1st in QBR and spearheading the 1st over ranked offense in total yards and points per game. Last season’s issues stemmed from the defense not being very good ranking 31st in the league in total yards allowed, causing the offense to try to outscore its opponents. There were a number of offseason moves made to try to sure up that side of the ball, starting with the hiring of DC Steve Spagnuolo. In addition to this the acquisition of DE Frank Clark should bolster the defense and provide another pass rusher with Dee Ford. Although Eric Berry and Justin Houston will not return, the acquisition of CB Bashaud Breeland should help along with Clark. On offense, the loss of RB Kareem Hunt doesn’t sting as much as he did not play in the postseason, and the loss of WR Tyreke Hill looks to be replaced by young dynamic WR Mecole Hardman. Coach Andy Reid and this Chiefs staff start their quest for an AFC Championship crown in week 1 at the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Week 1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Although the Jaguars have had a great defense over the past couple of seasons, I see no way they are able to keep up with this Chiefs offense. The offensive philosophy of the Jaguars must change as well as they play too slow of a pace to outscore the Chiefs. Give me the Chiefs.
Week 2 at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are a team that I have no faith in. QB Derek Carr had his worst season to date as he finished 27th in QBR. On defense the Raiders ranked last in points allowed per game. I see this game being a blowout as the Chiefs are more talented on both sides of the ball.
Week 3 vs Baltimore Ravens
New Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will force Lamar Jackson to throw from the pocket which I believe he cannot do. I also think that even though the Ravens finished ranked #1 in total yards allowed, this Chiefs offense is different. I like the Chiefs to win at home.
Week 4 at Detroit Lions
The Lions had a down year in 2018 and compete in a loaded NFC North. The Lions are built different than the Chiefs and do not have the weapons for Matt Stafford and company to be able to hang. I see the Chiefs win in a high scoring game.
Week 5 vs Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have seemed to have the Chiefs number in the playoffs over the past couple of appearances but QB Patrick Mahomes is as cool as they come. The Colts offense is scary, and they will be able to hang in this one until the very end. I see Mahomes making a big play at the end to sure up another MVP run. Chiefs win at home.
Week 6 vs Houston Texans
The Houston Texans come into this season with the clearly better defense and a decent offense. The Chiefs put out the best offense and a below average defense, but in today’s game offense rules. I see the Texans one dimensional relationship between Watson and Hopkins to get disrupted as the Chiefs win again.
Week 7 at Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos had one of the worst offenses in the league in 2018 and did nothing to address this. They swapped a below average QB for another one and added no weapons to his disposal other than a rookie TE in Noah Fant. The Chiefs should win this game with ease.
Week 8 vs Green Bay Packers
I know NFC North foes do not want to hear it, but I believe that the Aaron Rodgers of old will return after an injury and tension filled season. I think new Head Coach Matt LaFleur’s system will help enhance the Packers signal caller and the Packers defense should improve from last year allowing for tremendous improvement. I like the Packers to steal this one on the road.
Week 9 vs Minnesota Vikings
This will be a very tough matchup for this team as the Minnesota Vikings are set for a bounce back year. They are my sleeper for a NFC title contender as I think they win the NFC North. The Vikings have the better defense in this one and I see Mike Zimmer able to do enough to steal a win on the road. Give me the Vikings.
Week 10 at Tennessee Titans
Although the Titans were the 3rd best points allowed per game defense in 2018, I do not think they will be able to neutralize Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. I also think with the style of offense the titans run they will be unable to score with this team. Give me the Chiefs on the road.
Week 11 at Los Angeles Chargers
Again, the Chiefs have had the Chargers number as of late and return one of the most explosive offenses to ever be seen in the NFL. Reigning MVP QB Patrick Mahomes and his first ranked total yards and points per game offense are going to make a deep playoff run and possibly a world championship. I just see no way for the Chargers to hang with them on offense to pull out a win.
Week 12 Bye
Week 13 vs Oakland Raiders
I see this as a repeat of their week 2 matchup. Chiefs roll to a season sweep.
Week 14 at New England Patriots
In a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs will head to Foxborough. There is one key difference in this matchup, no Rob Gronkowski. I think this plays a huge factor as the Chiefs defense is able to put together one more stop than this Patriots offense. The Patriots defense will also have a hard time stopping the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs redeem themselves from their off sides penalty. Chiefs win on the road.
Week 15 Denver Broncos
I see this as a repeat of their week 7 matchup as the Chiefs sweep the season series.
Week 16 at Chicago Bears
This is where I believe the 5 game win streak comes to an end as the Chiefs travel to Soldier Field to face the #1 ranked points allowed per game defense in the Chicago Bears. The Bears defense is scary and if QB Mitch Trubisky can limit turnovers and get his playmaker in Cohen going, the Bears should be able to win this one.
Week 17 vs Los Angeles Chargers
This will be a repeat of their week 11 matchup as the Chiefs roll to a season series sweep.
This line seems odd to me as the Chiefs won 12 games in 2018, and have almost the same team returning other than WR Tyreke Hill who will be replaced by Mecole Hardman. I am just a believer in Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. Take the over.