Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots - 9/8/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Sunday, September 8, 2019 at 7:20 PM (Gillette Stadium)
The Line: New England Patriots -5.5 -- Over/Under: 49
The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots meet Sunday in NFL action at Gillette Stadium.
The Pittsburgh Steelers watched a streak of four straight playoff appearances come to an end, and they’ve missed the playoffs back-to-back years just once since 2011. The Pittsburgh Steelers have split their last six road games. The Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t lost a regular season opener since 2015, which ironically was on the road against the New England Patriots. The Pittsburgh Steelers finished last year ranked fourth in offensive yards per game and sixth in points per game. Defensively, the Steelers finished 16th in points allowed and sixth in yards allowed. Even without Antonio Brown, the Steelers should be just fin offensively as long as Ben Roethlisberger can stay healthy. Defensively, the Steelers have a lot of young guys who fly around and can thump with the best of them, and you should see this unit build on the flashes they showed a year ago. The Steelers aren’t going anywhere in terms of contention.
The New England Patriots are fresh of their second Super Bowl crown in the last three years and are once again a top-three favorite to win it yet again. The New England Patriots haven’t lost a home game since October of 2017. The New England Patriots have won 13 of their last 15 regular season openers. The New England Patriots finished last year ranked fifth in offensive yards per game and fourth in points per game. Defensively, the Patriots finished seventh in points allowed and 21 in yards allowed. As long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are on that New England sideline, they’re going to be a tough out and are rarely underdogs no matter who or where they play. However, the Patriots weren’t great defensively last year, a unit that took most of the regular season to figure things out. So, if there’s some glimmer of hope for the rest of the league, it’s that teams proved you can move the ball on New England.
The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf. The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf, 39-16-2 ATS in their last 57 home games and 40-17 ATS in their last 57 games overall. The Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New England and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 meetings. The under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games overall. The under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games overall.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog. The New England Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. The Steelers have done a better job of being competitive against the Patriots recently and should actually have won the last two games against them. Still, the Pats are too consistent at home both SU and ATS to bet against. Instead, I'll side with the over. The last six meetings between the Steelers and Patriots are averaging 51.5 points and we have two fresh quarterbacks ready to let it fly. I'll side with the over in this intriguing Sunday night showdown.