France vs. United States - 6/28/19 Women's World Cup Pick, Odds, and Prediction
France vs. United States
Friday, June 28, 2019 at 2:00 PM (Parc des Princes)
The Line: US +110 / France +260 / Draw +220 -- Over/Under: 2.5
France and United States meet Friday in the FIFA Women's World Cup quarterfinals at Parc des Princes.
France is coming off a tight, competitive match against Brazil that was close to going to penalty kicks if it weren’t for a Amandine Henry goal in the 106th minute. France allowed six shots on goal and survived a few quality looks that could have easily sent the hosts home. With that said, France probably shouldn’t have been in that position to begin with when you consider the controversial goal by Valerie Gauvin that was taken away in the first half. Many would agree that the goal should have counted, and France would have been in a much more comfortable position. What’s done is done at this point, and coach Corinne Diacre says that the nail biting result probably wakes the team up and allows them to play a little more free. France has won nine straight matches and has scored at least two goals in 13 of its last 15 matches. France looks to make the semifinals of the World Cup for the first time since 2011.
The United States had a tough round of 16 match of their own, as they needed nearly every minute to win a 2-1 battle that was decided on two Megan Rapinoe penalty kicks. Despite getting just one shot on goal, Spain went toe-to-toe with a US team that looked unbeatable in the group stages, and it was quite physical with 17 fouls and a yellow card. Spain also controlled the ball for 46 percent of the match, so ball control and physicality are likely two things opponents will take with them entering a match against the US. The second foul that produced the second penalty kick was questionable, but the Americans will certainly take it, and they’re now unbeaten in each of their last 13 matches. Team USA has to be sharper in this match if its going to squeeze out another victory. The United States has scored at least two goals in each of its last nine matches. The US has never been bounced before a medal game in World Cup history.
These teams met in a friendly match back in January, a meeting France won 3-1. A 2018 friendly match resulted in a 1-1 draw and France won a 2017 friendly match, 3-0. The US beat France 1-0 in the 2016 Olympics and 1-0 in a friendly match five months before that Olympic match.
Maybe the shaky performances from both France and the US in the round of 16 was a case of looking ahead. Either way, I think it was good for both sides, as they should both come into this match with laser focus knowing they could easily be watching the rest of the tournament from the couch. I don’t think home field matters that much in this contest given that the US has a ton of fans in attendance, so the stadium will probably be split down the middle. I’m not picking a side in this contest, as I can make a strong case for France the same way with the US. Both teams are loaded on the wings and the offenses should have plenty of scoring opportunities while taking an aggressive approach. If Spain had success pushing forward against the US, you can bet France will have many of quality of looks as well. This has the ability to be a high scoring contest with so much offensive depth.
Give me the over.