Taylor Fritz vs. Alex De Minaur
|Date & Time||Thursday November 8, 2018, 2:00 PM (EST)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Alex De Minaur and Taylor Fritz meet in the 2018 tennis Next Generation ATP Finals.
Alex De Minaur is coming off a four sets win over Andrey Rublev that took 25 games to decide. In the victory, De Minaur won 81 percent of his first serve points and 40 percent of his second serve points. De Minaur won 67 percent of his total service points and saved four of his five break points. De Minaur has won six of his seven sets this tournament and has produced 17 combined aces. As long as De Minaur is dominating his first serve and fighting off majority of his break points, he has to like his chances of making a run at the title this tournament. De Minaur hasn’t won three matches in a row since Shenzhen in late September. De Minaur has split his last six matches on indoor hard court.
Taylor Fritz is coming off a four sets win over Liam Caruana that took 23 games to decide. In the victory, Fritz won 80 percent of his first serve points and 59 percent of his second serve points. Fritz won 73 percent of his total service points and converted on two of his six break points. Fritz continues to be solid with his first serve, but it was the improved second serve that allowed him to win rather than lose a competitive match. If Fritz can win 55 percent or higher of his second serves, he has to like his chances to advance. Fritz looks to win two matches in a single tournament for the third time since the US Open. Fritz has split his last six matches on indoor hard court.
These two have played once, which was in UK challenger play this year, a match De Minaur won in straight sets. The match took 23 games to be decided.
Both of these guys have been hit or miss, so this is a coin flip match that will be tight. The difference for me is that Fritz has been inconsistent with his second serve and it’s the reason he’s lost a lot of tight matches. De Minaur has been solid this tournament and has gotten a lot of free points with his serve.
I give De Minaur the slight edge here.