Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev
|Date & Time||Wednesday November 14, 2018, 4:00 PM (EST)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic meet in the round robin stages of the 2018 tennis ATP Finals.
Alexander Zverev is coming off a straight sets win over Marin Cilic that took 26 games to decide. In the victory, Zverev won 75 percent of his first serve points and 48 percent of his second serve points. Zverev won 65 percent of his total service points and saved three of his five break points. Zverev managed to tough out back-to-back tiebreaks to win a confidence boosting match, but he must improve his second serve if he’s going to have a shot in this tournament. Zverev can’t continue winning against these top tier players with a weak second serve and 30-plus unforced errors. Each of Zverev’s last 10 victories have come in straight sets. Zverev has won six of his last eight matches on indoor hard court.
Novak Djokovic is coming off a straight sets win over John Isner that took 20 games to decide. In the victory, Djokovic won 87 percent of his first serve points and 85 percent of his second serve points. Djokovic won 86 percent of his total service points and didn’t face a single break point. Djokovic was simply dominant with his serve in his opening match and even gave himself nine break points against the best server in today’s game. It just goes to show how dialed in Djokovic is at the moment, and he’ll cruise to a title here if he’s going to get 70 percent of his first serves in play the rest of the way. Djokovic has now won 32 of his 35 matches. There’s nothing more that needs to be said here. Djokovic has won five of his last six matches on indoor hard court.
These two have played three times and Zverev has won two of those matches. The most recent match was in Shanghai of this year, a match Djokovic won in straight sets. The two times Zverev beat Djokovic were in Rome in 2017 and 2015 exhibition play, neither match on hard court. All three matches have been decided in straight sets.
As if betting against Djokovic wasn’t an option, Zverev is not winning many of his second serve points, which forces you to like Novak even more. To beat the Djokovic’s, Nadal’s and Federer’s, you have to have nearly everything working for you and can’t have many clear weaknesses. Zverev has zero chance here if he can’t improve his second serve percentage.
Give me Djokovic.