Goerges vs. Sevastova
|Date & Time||Sunday June 25, 2017, 9:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Goerges -119 / Sevastova +103 -- Over/Under:
Anastasija Sevastova and Julia Goerges meet in the Final of the 2017 Mallorca Open.
Anastasija Sevastova is coming off a straight sets win over Caroline Garcia that took 18 games to decide. In the victory, Sevastova won 79 percent of her first serve points and 60 percent of her second serve points. Sevastova is coming off her best match yet in which she won 49 percent of her return points and 71 percent of her total serve points. Sevastova has had highs and lows in her serve this tournament, but her return has been top notch and is the main reason she's in her fourth final appearance. Sevastova has to like her chances if she remains aggressive and keeps punishing second serves. Sevastova hopes to win her second career title and first since the 2010 Portugal Open. Sevastova is 0-1 in her career in final appearances on grass. Sevastova has won seven of her last 10 matches on grass court.
Julia Goerges is coming off a straight sets win over Catherine Bellis that took 14 games to decide. In the victory, Goerges won 77 percent of her first serve points and 45 percent of her second serve points. Goerges has yet to drop a set this tournament and has actually just lost a combined 14 games in her last four matches. Goerges is simply in the zone right now and is coming off a match in which she won 68 percent of her return points. Goerges has come out of nowhere with these performances and is simply playing her best probably since making the semis in Auckland. Goerges looks to win her third career title and first since the 2011 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix. Goerges has never been in a final appearance on grass. Goerges has split her last eight matches on grass court.
These two have played four times and Goerges has won three of those meetings. The most recent match was in the 2013 Auckland Open, a match Goerges won in straight sets. Sevastova’s only win over Goerges came in 2007.
The head to head doesn't mean much to me given that all of those matches were four years old or longer. Nothing recent. However, Goerges is playing at such a high quality, it's hard to bet against her. Heck, even oddsmakers have caught on, as despite Sevastova being the higher seed and the better player overall, she's an underdog. Goerges is serving well, returning well and hitting her spots, as she hasn't come close to dropping a set let alone a match.
I’ll side with Goerges in this match.