Andrey Rublev vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta - 7/27/19 Rothenbaum Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Andrey Rublev vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta
Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 8:00 AM (Am Rothenbaum)
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Andrey Rublev and Pablo Carreno-Busta meet in the semifinal of the 2019 tennis Rothenbaum tournament.
Andrey Rublev is coming off a straight sets win over Dominic Thiem that took 26 games to decide. In the victory, Rublev won 84 percent of his first serve points and 57 percent of his second serve points. Rublev won 71 percent of his total service points and converted on two of his five break points. Rublev got 52 percent of his first serves in play and saved two of his four break points. It was a solid performance from the 21-year-old Russian, and it gave Rublev his second career win over a top-10 player. Rublev hopes to make his first final appearance since last years Qatar Open and the third final appearance of his career. Rublev has won four of her last five matches on clay court.
Pablo Carreno-Busta is coming off a three sets win over Fabio Fognini that took 30 games to decide. In the victory, Carreno-Busta won 64 percent of his first serve points and 43 percent of his second serve points. Carreno-Busta won 57 percent of his total service points and converted on six of his 23 break points. Carreno-Busta got 67 percent of his first serves in play and saved five of his 10 break points. It’s the first time Carreno-Busta has won three straight matches since the Australian Open, and he now has four career wins over top-10 players. Carreno-Busta hopes to make his first final appearance since the 2017 Estoril Open and the seventh final appearance of his career. Carreno-Busta has won five of his last six matches on clay court.
These two have played three times and Rublev won all of those meetings, including the most recent match in a 2017 exhibition.
Carreno-Busta has more experience in these pressure matches, but it’s Rublev who has looked sharper and is coming off a highly impressive performance against probably the second best active player on clay. Rublev also has won all three meetings against Carreno-Busta, and while those matches have some years on them, a successful h2h counts for something and usually holds true to future matches.
I give the edge to Rublev, as he makes his first final of the year.