David Ferrer vs. Andy Murray
|Date & Time||Monday November 16, 2015, 11:05 AM (EST)|
The Line: Andy Murray -375 / David Ferrer +315 -- Over/Under: 21.5
Andy Murray and David Ferrer meet Monday morning in the 2015 ATP World Tour Finals.
Andy Murray has been picking up steam heading into this tournament, as he reached the finals of the Paris Masters and the semifinals of the Shanghai Masters. Honestly, if it wasn’t for Novak Djokovic, Murray wouldn’t have lost a singles match since the US Open. Still, Murray has won 10 of his last 13 matches and five of his last seven wins have come in straight sets. Murray is winning 74 percent of his first serve points on hard court this year and converting 43 percent of his break points. This could be the year Murray makes a strong and deep run at Barclays. Murray has not made it out of the round robin stages of the ATP World Tour Finals since the 2012 season.
David Ferrer is also riding some momentum after reaching the semifinals of the Paris Masters and winning the Vienna Open. In fact, Ferrer has won all five of his single final appearances this year and has won 15 of his last 18 matches overall. However, Ferrer has either lost or win in three sets in four of his last five matches, so nothing lately has come easy for the top-10 player. Ferrer will certainly have to play more consistent tennis in order to hang in this tournament. Ferrer is winning 70 percent of his first serve points on hard court this year and is converting 45 percent of his break points. Ferrer has not made it out of the round robin stages of the ATP World Tour Finals since the 2011 season.
These two have played 17 times, and Murray has won 11 of those meetings overall and the last four straight. The last meeting between these two was in this year’s Paris Masters, a match that Murray won in straight sets. Ferrer’s last win over Murray came in the 2014 Shanghai Masters. This will be the 12th time Ferrer and Murray meet on hard court, and three of the last six meetings have gone the distance.
Murray has had his way with players not named Djokovic as of late and it’s hard to expect that to change here. Ferrer just isn’t consistent enough and is simply making too many errors to be trusted in this big spot. I like Murray to win and cover the reasonable spread.