Dimitrov vs. Murray
|Date & Time||Sunday October 9, 2016, 3:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Dimitrov +380 / Murray -475 -- Over/Under:
Andy Murray and Grigor Dimitrov meet in the 2016 China Open Final early Sunday morning.
Andy Murray is coming off a straight sets win over David Ferrer that took 17 games to decide. Murray has yet to drop a set this tournament and is fresh off a match in which he dominated a top-10 player from start to finish. It really shouldn’t come as a surprise, as Murray is now in his ninth final this season and continues to play some of the best tennis of his life. Murray is serving and returning well, and his defense in pressure situations has been out of this world. With Novak Djokovic having an up-and-down season, Murray continues to make a case for the top player in the world. Murray has a chance to win his fifth title this season. Murray has split his last 10 final appearances and is 27-18 in career finals on hard court.
Grigor Dimitrov is coming off a victory over Milos Raonic in which he was forced to retire due to an ankle injury. Dimitrov has lost two sets this tournament and has done a much better job of controlling his mental game and hanging in there strong. Dimitrov may be a huge underdog, but the fatigue factor is on his side big time considering he’s played just 18 games since the quarterfinals. Dimitrov also looks like somebody who is starting to put things together, as he’s back in the top-20 and is having less and less breakdowns when matches get difficult. Dimitrov has a chance here if he can stay the course and play clan tennis the way he has recently. Dimitrov is in his third final appearance this season and looks for his first win since the 2014 Queen's Club Championships. Dimitrov is 2-3 in career finals on hard court.
These two have played 10 times in the past and Murray has won seven of those meetings. The most recent match was in this years US Open, a match Murray won in straight sets. Dimitrov’s last win over Murray came in this years Miami Masters. This will be the 10th time these two meet on hard court.
Dimitrov may be worth a flyer given the rest advantage and the way he’s played recently, which includes a dominating performance over Nadal. However, Murray has been on another planet all season long and is head and shoulders easier to trust. I’ve said time and time again that I think Murray is playing the best tennis of his life. You’re never quite sure how Dimitrov is going to play or how things are going to play out if his nerves and sloppy play takeover a match.
Murray should win his fifth title of the 2016 season.