Wawrinka vs. Murray
|Date & Time||Friday June 9, 2017, 9:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Wawrinka -120 / Murray +100 -- Over/Under:
Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka meet in the semifinals of the 2017 French Open.
Andy Murray is coming off a four set win over Kei Nishikori that took 35 games to decide. In the victory, Murray won 74 percent of his first serve points and 43 percent of his second serve points. Murray isn't coming off his best match of the tournament, but he still managed to win 45 percent of his return points and broke seven times. As long as that return is working well and his defense bails him out, Murray is a tough out regardless of how the other things are playing out. Murray has a chance to reach his second career French Open final. Murray looks for his third grand slam final appearance since last season. Murray is 10-9 in his career in grand slam semifinal appearances. Murray has won six of his last eight matches on clay court.
Stan Wawrinka is coming off a straight sets win over Marin Cilic that took 25 games to decide. In the victory, Wawrinka won 65 percent of his first serve points and 79 percent of his second serve points. Wawrinka has yet to drop a set this tournament and is coming off a match in which he lost just 23 service points. Wawrinka is going to be tough to beat as long as he keeps his unforced errors below 30, which he's done three times this tournament. Wawrinka hopes to make his second French Open final. Wawrinka looks to make his fourth career grand slam final. Wawrinka is 3-5 in grand slam semifinal appearances. Wawrinka has won nine straight matches on clay court.
These two have played 17 times, and Murray won 10 of those meetings. The most recent match was in the 2016 ATP World Tour Finals, a match Murray won in straight sets. This will be the fifth meeting on clay, and Wawrinka has won three of those four previous meetings.
This match is a toss-up in my eyes, as Wawrinka does have the edge on clay and is playing better tennis overall, but it’s tough to bet against Murray and that defense. Murray hasn't played his best tennis in this tournament, but he finds ways to push through and has shown he doesn't have to play great to beat great competition. He's as solid as a rock and can make somebody like Wawrinka frustrated, which is when the unforced errors takeover. This could be an epic five setter and I don't have a strong opinion either way.
But I’m leaning with Murray because of his defense and the ability to force Wawrinka to hit extra balls. Wawrinka’s service numbers have lowered when playing Murray in the past, especially the last match when he won just 11 of 25 second serve points.