Garbine Muguruza vs. Angelique Kerber
|Date & Time||Saturday December 29, 2018, 10:00 PM (EST)|
The Line: Angelique Kerber -140 / Garbine Muguruza +110 -- Over/Under:
Angelique Kerber and Garbine Muguruza meet in the round robin stages of the 2018 tennis Hopman Cup.
Angelique Kerber finished the season hit or miss, as she split her last 14 matches and had an early exit in the WTA Finals. It’s been the story of Kerber the past couple of years, especially after winning a grand slam, as one tournament she’ll look unbeatable and the next tournament she’ll struggle to win a game. Kerber is coming off a match in which she lost 20 of her 30 second serve points and had 38 unforced errors to 18 winners. We know what player Kerber is when she’s on, but it’s tough to predict when the German will bring her A game. Kerber has won five of her last seven matches on indoor hard court.
Garbine Muguruza enters this match splitting her last eight matches and just lost an exhibition match a few days ago to Eugenie Bouchard. Muguruza has lost eight of her last 12 sets when you include her exhibition match, and she’s had real issues with her serve. Muguruza is another player who can be the best player on the court on day and somebody who gets dragged by a player outside of the top 100 the next day. A lack of consistency is the reason why Muguruza isn’t making a push for being the top player in the world. Muguruza has split her last six matches on indoor hard court.
These two have played eight times and Muguruza has won five of those matches. Muguruza has actually won five straight matches against Kerber, with the most recent coming in the 2017 Wimbledon. Kerber’s last win over Muguruza came in 2015 in Sydney. Four of the eight matches have been decided in straight sets.
Kerber is probably the safer pick here based on her being easier to trust, but we’re getting plus money with Muguruza, and she’s owned the head to head with five straight victories. Muguruza has also played a more recent match, which is good for her to get the rust off. If you’re betting Kerber, you’re betting on her with two months off.
The value is with Muguruza and the plus money, even if she’s a headache to trust.