Ashleigh Barty vs. Elina Svitolina
|Date & Time||Tuesday March 12, 2019, 3:00 PM (EDT)|
Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Indian Wells, California
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Ashleigh Barty and Elina Svitolina meet in the fourth round of the 2019 tennis Indian Wells.
Ashleigh Barty is coming off a straight sets win over Jennifer Brady that took 17 games to decide. In the victory, Barty won 79 percent of her first serve points and 59 percent of her second serve points. Barty won 67 percent of her total service points and converted on four of her 13 break points. Barty has won all four sets this tournament and has given herself a combined 22 break points. Barty can still improve her second serve, but she’s a tough out as long as her return is working at that level. Barty has a chance to make her first ever quarterfinal appearance in a WTA Premier Mandatory. Barty has seven career wins over top-10 players, which includes two victories this season. Barty has won 10 of her last 12 matches on outdoor hard court.
Elina Svitolina is coming off a straight sets win over Daria Gavrilova that took 22 games to decide. In the victory, Svitolina won 55 percent of her first serve points and 32 percent of her second serve points. Svitolina won 46 percent of her total service points and covered on eight of her 17 break points. Svitolina is finding ways to win, but her serve has been shaky at best as of late, and she’s been broken a combined nine times in her first two matches. Still, Svitolina is getting the job done and has a chance to win at least three matches for the third time in her last five tournaments. Svitolina also has a chance to make her fourth career WTA Premier Mandatory quarterfinal appearance and the first ever at Indian Wells. Svitolina has won five of her last six matches on outdoor hard court.
These two have played four times and Svitolina has won all four matches, including the most recent meeting in Miami last year. Each of the last three meetings were decided in straight sets and this will be the third match on hard court.
The h2h numbers suggest that Svitolina should win this match, but her serve hasn’t held up in her first two matches, and a player such as Barty would take advantage of those breaks her past opponents couldn’t. This has been a breakout year for Barty when you include her final trip at Sydney and deep run in the Australian Open, so there’s reason to think she could take things a step further against a top-10 player who has shown some hiccups these past few days.
I’ll take a chance with Barty for the upset.