Ashleigh Barty vs. Karolina Pliskova
|Date & Time||Saturday March 30, 2019, 1:00 PM (EDT)|
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
The Line: Pliskova +103 / Barty -123 -- Over/Under: 22
Ashleigh Barty and Karolina Pliskova meet in the final of the 2019 tennis Miami Open.
Ashleigh Barty is coming off a straight sets win over Anett Kontaveit that took 18 games to decide. In the victory, Barty won 83 percent of her first serve points and 43 percent of her second serve points. Barty won 63 percent of her total service points and converted on five of her nine break points. Barty has produced a combined 15 breaks in her last three matches and has done a better job of going for her shots rather than play the slice, long rally game. We’re seeing more confidence from Barty, who has now won 17 of her last 20 matches. Barty hopes to win her first title since last years WTA Elite Trophy and the fourth title of her career. Barty has lost four of her last six final appearances and is 2-3 in career final appearances on hard court. This is Barty’s first ever final appearance in a Premier Mandatory. Barty has won 11 of her last 13 matches on outdoor hard court.
Karolina Pliskova is coming off a straight sets win over Simona Halep that took 19 games to decide. In the victory, Pliskova won 75 percent of her first serve points and 40 percent of her second serve points. Pliskova won 65 percent of her total service points and converted on five of her seven break points. Despite multiple rain delays, Pliskova stayed focused and ended up winning a second set that took just 26 minutes of game time to complete. Pliskova has now won each of her last six sets and continues to get an extremely high percentage of her first serves in play. While the aces haven’t been there consistently, Pliskova has been in complete control of every match this tournament. Pliskova looks to win her second title of the year and the 13th title of her career. Pliskova has won six of her last seven final appearances and is 8-8 in career final appearances on hard court. This is Pliskova’s first ever final appearance in a Premier Mandatory. Pliskova has won 10 of her last 12 matches on outdoor hard court.
These two have split the previous four meetings, with Pliskova winning the most recent match in last years US Open. Barty’s two wins over Pliskova went the distance, while the other two matches were decided in straight sets. They’ve split the two matches on hard court.
You can make a strong case for either one of these players given the form they’ve both been in this year. I’m giving Pliskova the edge because of her power and the fact she’s had more success in the four matches against Barty. Pliskova’s two wins were straight sets, while Barty’s two wins went the distance. That tells you it’s a lot easier for Pliskova to adjust to Barty’s game than the other way around. Pliskova can push Barty around the court and take the racket out of her hands at times. Barty can get uncomfortable against power players.
I like Pliskova to win her first career Premier Mandatory.