Belinda Bencic vs. Naomi Osaka - 9/2/19 US Open Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Belinda Bencic vs. Naomi Osaka - 9/2/19 US Open Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Belinda Bencic vs. Naomi Osaka

Monday, September 2, 2019 at 11:00 AM (USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center)

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Belinda Bencic and Naomi Osaka meet in the fourth round of the 2019 tennis US Open.

Belinda Bencic is coming off a walkover victory over Anett Kontaveit after withdrawing due to an illness. Bencic has played just five sets to get to this point and will obviously have a major rest advantage given that she hasn’t played a match since Thursday. In her last match, Bencic won 62 percent of her total serve points, gave herself 12 break points and hit 27 winners. Bencic has to clean up the unforced errors, which has been an issue lately even before this tournament, but conditioning is often king in grand slam play, and she’s the freshest player on tour at the moment. Bencic has a chance to win four straight matches for the first time since Mallorca back in June. Bencic looks to make her second career grand slam quarterfinal and first since the 2014 US Open. Bencic is 1-3 in career grand slam fourth round matches. Bencic has won five of her last seven matches on hard court.

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Naomi Osaka is coming off a straight sets win over Coco Gauff that took 15 games to decide. In the victory, Osaka won 74 percent of her first serve points and 41 percent of her second serve points. Osaka won 59 percent of her total service points and converted on six of her seven break points. Osaka got 55 percent of her first serves in play, saved three of her five break points and hit five aces. Osaka won each of the last eight games and finished the match in a little over an hour, easily her best showing of the tournament. Osaka hopes to make her third career grand slam quarterfinal and second in the US Open. Osaka is 2-1 in grand slam fourth round matches. Osaka has won five of her last six matches on hard court.

These two have played four times and Bencic has won the last three, which includes the most recent match this year in Madrid. Osaka’s only win over Bencic came in 2013 ITF play. Three of the four matches were decided in straight sets.

Bencic has the rest advantage, the h2h advantage and has been a giant killer all year long. In fact, Bencic has eight wins this year over top-10 players, with two of those wins coming against Osaka. Also, Osaka will have to be sharper with her second serve if she’s going to win this match. With all that said, I still lean toward Osaka given the power and focus she played in her last match. If she plays at that level moving forward, she’s the best in the field and should probably be favored to win the tournament.

We’ve made a lot of money backing Bencic this year, but Osaka has the edge heading into this match.

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Randy’s Pick Naomi Osaka

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.