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Christian Garin vs. Guido Pella 3/3/19 ATP Tour Brasil Open Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Christian Garin vs. Guido Pella
Date & Time Sunday March 3, 2019, 10:00 AM (EST)
The Line
The Line: -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
Tennis
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Tennis | Christian Garin vs. Guido Pella
Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Christian Garin and Guido Pella meet in the final of the 2019 tennis Brasil Open.

Christian Garin is coming off a straight sets win over Casper Ruud that took 20 games to decide. In the victory, Garin won 74 percent of his first serve points and 62 percent of his second serve points. Garin won 68 percent of his total service points and converted on three of his six break points. Garin has won eight of his 10 sets this tournament, and while he can get a higher percentage of first serves in play, he’s been rather consistent with his serve overall. Garin has been broken just twice in his last nine break points, a key to his success over the last week. Garin has a chance to win five matches in a single event for the first time since winning a challenger title in Lima last October. Garin has a chance to win his first ever ATP singles title, and this is his first ever final appearance. Garin has won six of his last eight matches on clay court.

Guido Pella is coming off a straight sets win over Laslo Djere that took 26 games to decide. In the victory, Pella won 75 percent of his first serve points and 68 percent of his second serve points. Pella won 72 percent of his total service points and converted on two of his five break points. Pella has yet to drop a set this tournament and has been broken just twice in his last four sets. Pella has now won at least three matches in three of his last four tournaments. Pella has a chance to win his first ATP singles title, as he’s 0-4 in previous final appearances. Pella has lost all four of his final trips on clay, which includes a final appearance this year in the Cordoba Open. Pella has won six of his last eight matches on clay court.

These two have played three times and Pella has won all three meetings. The most recent meeting was in the 2018 Davis Cup. Pella has won six of the seven sets against Garin and two of the wins took place on clay.

Garin has played well up to this point and really enjoys the clay court, but he’s given his opponent too many looks at break points. Eventually that’s going to catch up to him. Pella has not only been the sharper player up to this point, but he also has the edge in experience. Pella has to feel this is his best shot yet to finally win a singles title after failing the previous four times. Experience matters in final appearances.

Pella wins his first career title.

Pick:
Guido Pella

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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