Diego Schwartzman vs. Novak Djokovic
|Date & Time||Saturday May 18, 2019, 2:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Djokovic -1000 / Schwartzman +600 -- Over/Under:
Diego Schwartzman and Novak Djokovic meet in the semifinal of the 2019 tennis Italian Open.
Diego Schwartzman is coming off a straight sets win over Kei Nishikori that took 18 games to decide. In the victory, Schwartzman won 67 percent of his first serve points and 55 percent of his second serve points. Schwartzman won 62 percent of his total service points and converted on five of his 11 break points. Schwartzman got 62 percent of his first serves in play and now has two wins this year over top-10 players. Schwartzman has won all eight sets this tournament and has won four straight matches for the first time since last years French Open. Schwartzman has prodded a combined 18 breaks in his last four matches. Schwartzman hopes to make his second final appearance of the year and the sixth of his career. Schwartzman also has a chance to make his first ever final appearance in a Masters 1000. Schwartzman has won five of his last six matches on clay court.
Novak Djokovic is coming off a three sets win over Juan-Martin Del Potro that took 33 games to decide. In the victory, Djokovic won 68 percent of his first serve points and 70 percent of his second serve points. Djokovic won 69 percent of his total service points and converted on two of his 11 break points. Djokovic found a way to prevail after being down match points in a second set tiebreak, and he saved five of his seven break points. Djokovic is finding ways to pull out these matches even when he’s not playing his absolute best and turns things up defensively in key points. The only issue is fatigue, as this is a quick turnaround and Djokovic just played three hours. Djokovic hopes to make his third final appearance of the year and the 108th of his career. Djokovic hopes to make the final of the Italian Open for the fifth time in the last six years. Djokovic has won each of his last eight matches on clay court.
These two have played twice and Djokovic won both meetings, including the most recent match in the 2017 French Open. The other meeting was in the 2014 US Open.
Schwartzman is worth a strong consideration when you consider the rest advantage he has in this match. Djokovic had to work very hard in his quarterfinal match and it’s a very quick turnaround in terms of time. Fatigue could play a factor in Djokovic losing this match. With that said, Djokovic has won eight straight matches on this surface, has made the final four of the last five years and is more than capable of digging deep and putting together a quick performance that doesn't take much out of him physically.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Schwartzman won, but I can’t bet against Djokovic in his current form.