Zverev vs. Thiem
|Date & Time||Sunday May 13, 2018, 11:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev meet in the final of the 2018 tennis Madrid Masters.
Dominic Thiem is coming off a straight sets win over Kevin Anderson that took 18 games to decide. In the victory, Thiem won 86 percent of his first serve points and 72 percent of his second serve points. Thiem won 80 percent of his total service points and wasn’t broken once in his semifinal victory. Thiem has now won six straight sets in this tournament and is going to be a tough out if he continues to serve the way he’s serving. Thiem is a confident player right now and has a shot at the biggest title of his career at 24 years old. Thiem hopes to win his second title of the year and his 10th title of his career. Thiem has split his last eight final appearances overall and is 7-4 in final appearances on clay court. Thiem has never won a ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title and is 0-1 in his career in previous final appearances. Thiem has won eight of his last 10 matches on clay court.
Alexander Zverev is coming off a straight sets win over Denis Shapovalov that took 17 games to decide. In the victory, Zverev won 88 percent of his first serve points and 63 percent of his second serve points. Zverev won 79 percent of his total service points for the match and won 71 percent of his return points in the second set. Zverev has now won 16 straight sets and is going to be a nightmare to deal with if he continues to win such a high percentage of his service points. You’re talking about a guy who has given his opponents a combined one break point in his last four matches, and that one chance wasn’t converted. Zverev has been broken just once in his last five matches combined, which is the definition of being in the zone. Zverev hopes to win his second title of the year and the eighth of his career. Zverev has won seven of his last nine final appearances and is 3-1 in final appearances on clay court. Zverev looks for his third ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title and is 2-1 in his career in previous final appearances. Zverev has won eight straight matches on clay court.
These two have played five times and Thiem has won four of those meetings. The most recent match was in Rotterdam of last year, a match Thiem won in three sets. Thiem’s only loss to Zverev came in Beijing of 2016. Thiem is 3-0 against Zverev on clay court.
Thiem obviously has the edge over Zverev based on the head to head history and the 3-0 record against him on clay. Not to mention he’s had the most career success on clay and just beat Nadal, who was the overwhelming favorite to win this tournament. However, Zverev is playing some of the best tennis we’ve seen from him and isn’t even giving his opponents a look at a break point. He’s playing at another level right now.
I’m ignoring the head to head numbers and backing Zverev to win his third Masters 1000 title.