Anderson vs. Thiem
|Date & Time||Saturday May 12, 2018, 11:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Dominic Thiem and Kevin Anderson meet in the semifinals of the 2018 tennis Madrid Masters.
Dominic Thiem is coming off a straight sets win over Rafael Nadal that took 21 games to decide. In the victory, Thiem won 74 percent of his first serve points and 43 percent of his second serve points. Thiem did the impossible by snapping Nadal’s insane clay streak, as he won 48 percent of his return points and gave himself 12 break chances. It was an overall impressive performance from Thiem, who has now beaten Nadal three times on clay. Thiem has played a lot of tennis to get to this point, but his confidence now has to be higher than ever. Thiem has won five of his last eight semifinal appearances. Thiem hopes to make his second final of the season and back-to-back final appearances in the Madrid Masters. This is the only Masters 1000 tournament Thiem has ever made the final in. Thiem has won seven of his last nine matches on clay court.
Kevin Anderson is coming off a straight sets win over Dusan Lajovic that took 31 games to decide. In the victory, Anderson won 68 percent of his first serve points and 66 percent of his second serve points. Anderson struggled with his return in his quarterfinal match, but he hit 15 aces and won 67 percent of his total service points. Anderson has double-digit aces in each of his last three matches and is always a tough out when he’s getting so many free points. While clay has never been Anderson’s best surface, his power game is there and that always makes him a threat. Anderson has won each of his last five semifinal appearances. Anderson hopes to make his third final of the season and his first final appearance ever in a ATP Masters Series. Anderson has won five of his last seven matches on clay court.
These two have played six times and Anderson has won all six matches. The most recent meeting was in the 2017 Citi Open, a match Anderson won in three sets. Every match took place on some form of hard court.
Anderson is getting a ton of free points with his serve and really hitting his spots, but how do you bet against the guy who just beat Nadal? The King of clay wasn’t dropping sets let alone matches, and Thiem had no trouble with his serve and cruised rather easily. Thiem made the final in this tournament last year and is much more comfortable on this surface than the South African.
I give the Thiem the edge, but likely in three sets.