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Dominic Thiem vs. Rafael Nadal 2018 US Open Tennis Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction

Game
Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem
Date & Time Tuesday September 4, 2018, 8:00 PM (EDT)
Location
The Line
The Line: -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
ESPN
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Dominic Thiem and Rafael Nadal meet in the quarterfinal round of the 2018 tennis US Open.

Dominic Thiem is coming off a straight sets win over Kevin Anderson that took 33 games to decide. In the victory, Thiem won 91 percent of his first serve points and 65 percent of his second serve points. Thiem won 78 percent of his total service points and didn’t face a single break point in the victory. Thiem has won 12 of his 15 sets this tournament and won’t be an easy out if he serves anywhere close to what he did in his last match. Thiem has also combined for 101 winners in his last two matches. Thiem has a chance to reach his fourth career grand slam semifinal and first ever in the US Open. Thiem is 3-0 in career grand slam quarterfinal matches. Thiem has won seven of his last 10 matches on hard court.

Rafael Nadal is coming off a four sets win over Nikoloz Basilashvili that took 41 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 75 percent of his first serve points and 61 percent of his second serve points. Nadal won 70 percent of his total service points and produced six breaks on 16 break points. Nadal also had just 19 unforced errors in four sets, proving just how dialed in he is and that his previous match had no impact on his conditioning. Nadal is now 20-3 in sets played this year on hard court. Right now, there’s no reason to think Nadal shouldn't be the favorite to win this tournament. Nadal hopes to make the semifinal of a grand slam for the sixth time in his last eight tries. Nadal has won 14 of his last 17 grand slam quarterfinal matches. Nadal is 6-1 in US Open quarterfinal matches. Nadal has won 13 of his last 14 matches on hard court. 

These two have played 10 times and Nadal has won seven of those matches. The most recent match was in this years French Open, a match Nadal won in straight sets. Oddly enough, all 10 meetings between Thiem and Nadal have taken place on clay court. Nine of the 10 matches have been decided in straight sets.

We know Thiem has success against Nadal on clay, but we’ve never seen these two play on hard court. Should be interesting. As for who wins, Nadal was my pick to win the tournament before it started, and I’ve seen nothing to jump off that bandwagon. Nadal has been lights out on hard court this season and has been serving at a much more consistent level. On this fast surface, the pace should also favor Nadal, and not allow Thiem to get comfortable at the net.

Nadal reaches the semifinals of the US Open.

Pick:
Rafael Nadal

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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