Nadal vs. Fognini
|Date & Time||Friday May 18, 2018, 11:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Fabio Fognini and Rafael Nadal meet in the quarterfinals of the 2018 tennis Rome Masters.
Fabio Fognini is coming off a straight sets win over Peter Gojowczyk that took 20 games to decide. In the victory, Fognini won 67 percent of his first serve points and 64 percent of his second serve points. Fognini played a fairly clean match and gave himself eight break chances while winning 66 percent of his total service points. You’re never sure which Fognini you’re going to get from match to match, but he’s been rather solid on clay as of late and has to be a confident player at the moment. Fognini has won each of his last seven quarterfinal appearances. Fognini has a chance to make a semifinal in a Masters 1000 for the third time in his career. Fognini has won seven of his last 10 matches on clay court.
Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Denis Shapovalov that took 17 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 90 percent of his first serve points and 67 percent of his second serve points. Nadal managed to to drop just three first serve points and won 86 percent of his total service points. Nadal has now won 28 of his last 30 sets played on clay, which even for the king of this surface, it’s kind of an unreal stretch. Besides his minor hiccup in the Madrid Masters quarterfinal, Nadal has been on another level so far this season and is carrying a ridiculous amount of momentum heading into the upcoming French Open. Nadal has won five of his last eight quarterfinal appearances. Nadal looks for his ninth semifinal in a Masters 1000 since 2016. Nadal has won 10 of his last 11 matches on clay court.
These two have played 13 times and Nadal has won 10 of those meetings. The most recent match was in the 2017 Shanghai Masters, a match Nadal won in straight sets. Nadal hasn’t lost to Fognini since the 2015 US Open. Nadal is also 5-2 against Fognini on clay court.
Fognini has beaten Nadal twice on clay, but he also has a long history of struggling against the top tier players and that’s been no different against Nadal overall. Also, Nadal has been on a historic stretch on clay court, and isn’t close to dropping sets let alone matches. Fognini is sure to get frustrated and start giving away silly points.
Can’t bet against Nadal.