Fernando Verdasco vs. Rafael Nadal 5/17/19 Italian Open Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Fernando Verdasco vs. Rafael Nadal
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 7:30 AM (Foro Italico)
The Line: Nadal -1564 / Verdasco +1161 -- Over/Under: 18
Fernando Verdasco and Rafael Nadal meet in the quarterfinal of the 2019 tennis Italian Open.
Fernando Verdasco is coming off a three sets win over Karen Khachanov that took 30 games to decide. In the victory, Verdasco won 63 percent of his first serve points and 72 percent of his second serve points. Verdasco won 61 percent of his total service points and converted on three of his seven break points. Verdasco continues to serve at a high level this tournament, but he played six hours and nearly five hours of tennis yesterday, so it’s going to be interesting to see if his conditioning can hold up. As long as those legs are fresh, Verdasco is capable of putting a scare in the rest of this field. Verdasco has a chance to win four straight matches for the first time since Rio de Janeiro last year. Verdasco has won five of his last six matches on clay court.
Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Nikoloz Basilashvili that took 13 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 80 percent of his first serve points and 75 percent of his second serve points. Nadal won 78 percent of his total service points and converted on five of his 11 break points. Nadal won each of the last 11 games and needed just an hour and two minutes to close the match. Nadal won 29 of 37 total service points, and if he comes anywhere close to that the rest of the way, this tournament is his to lose. Nadal isn’t losing on clay court as long as he serves that well. Nadal hopes to win at least three matches for the fifth straight tournament. Nadal has won five of his last six matches on clay court.
These two have played 20 times and Nadal has won 17 of those matches, including the most recent meeting in 2017 Indian Wells. Verdasco’s last win over Nadal came in the 2016 Australian Open. Nadal is 6-1 against Verdasco on clay court. A total of 12 of the 20 matches were decided in straight sets.
Verdasco will make this match competitive if he continues to serve the way he has, but the history here doesn’t lie. Nadal has owned Verdasco over the last decade, and when the h2h is this one-sided, it usually stays that way. Not to mention Nadal has a long history of success on clay and it’s really tough to bet against him on this surface.
Give me Nadal in straight sets.