Venus vs. Muguruza
|Date & Time||Saturday July 15, 2017, 9:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Muguruza -114 / Venus +107 -- Over/Under:
Garbine Muguruza and Venus Williams meet in the final of the 2017 Wimbledon.
Garbine Muguruza is coming off a straight sets win over Magdalena Rybarikova that took 14 games to decide. In the victory, Muguruza won 74 percent of her first serve points and 69 percent of her second serve points. Muguruza has dropped just nine games in her last two matches and has had 15 or less unforced errors in five of her six matches this tournament. Muguruza is coming off a match in which she won 58 percent of her return points and is hitting the ball with great pace. Muguruza is easily playing some of the best tennis we’ve seen from her since that 2015 season. This is Muguruza’s third career grand slam final appearance, and she hopes to win her second title. Muguruza is 0-1 in her career in final appearances on grass. Muguruza has won nine of her last 11 matches on grass court.
Venus Williams is coming off a straight sets win over Johanna Konta that took 18 games to decide. In the victory, Venus won 79 percent of her first serve points and 65 percent of her second serve points. Venus has dropped just one set this tournament and is coming off a match in which she lost just seven first serve points. Venus has combined for just 37 unforced errors in her last three matches and had just nine in her semifinals victory. Venus looks very comfortable on the court right now and is in her third grand slam final since the 2009 season. Venus hopes to win her first grand slam final since the 2008 Wimbledon and her eighth grand slam title of her career. Venus is 5-3 in her career in final appearances on grass. Venus has won 11 of her last 12 matches on grass court.
These two have played four times and Venus has won three of those meetings. The most recent match was in this years Rome Masters, a match Muguruza won in three sets. Venus’ victories were in 2013-15. This will be the first time these two meet on grass court.
Two of the four matches between these two have gone the distance and with the way both are playing right now, you can probably expect the same here. You could make a case for either player and Muguruza is probably the safer bet given the pace she’s hitting the ball and the fact she’s the better mover right now. However, I thought Konta had the edge over Venus in the semifinals, and she won just 26 percent of her return points and got nothing from her second serve. After that domination, it’s kind of hard to pick against Venus, especially with the plus money. Maybe it’s just her tournament to end the drought.
I’ll side with Venus here.