Nadal vs. Pella
|Date & Time||Wednesday May 30, 2018, 11:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Guido Pella and Rafael Nadal meet in the second round of the 2018 tennis French Open.
Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Simone Bolelli that took 32 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 75 percent of his first serve points and 59 percent of his second serve points. Nadal didn’t play his cleanest match in the first round, as he was broken twice and did have 25 unforced errors. Still, Nadal didn’t really come close to dropping a set and managed to win 42 percent of his return points. You almost get the feeling Nadal is getting bored out here given the way he’s dominated his opponents recently and has now won 27 of his last 31 sets played on this surface. Nadal has lost before the third round of a grand slam twice since 2015. Nadal has never lost before the third round of the French Open. Nadal has won 10 of his last 11 matches on clay court.
Guido Pella is coming off a straight sets win over João Sousa that took 27 games to decide. In the victory, Pella won 81 percent of his first serve points and 67 percent of his second serve points. Pella managed to win 76 percent of his total service points and wasn’t broken once in his first round victory. Pella will need a similar performance in this match if he has any chance of even being competitive. Pella needs as many free points as possible if he’s going to push Nadal in this match. Pella has two career wins over top-10 players in his career, with the most recent coming in 2017. Pella has a chance to reach the third round of a grand slam for the first time in his career. Pella has split his last six matches on clay court.
These two have played once, which was in the 2017 Indian Wells Masters, a match Nadal won in straight sets. The match took 17 games to be decided.
We’ve been down this road before, but it’s worth repeating. Do not bet against Nadal on clay court. If that wasn’t enough, Pella is a 28-year-old who has never seen the third round of a grand slam and has very little success on the main tour overall. There’s almost a zero percent chance the Spaniard loses this match.
Nadal wins in straight sets.