Johanna Konta vs. Karolina Pliskova
|Date & Time||Sunday May 19, 2019, 7:00 AM (EDT)|
The Line: Konta +143 / Pliskova -157 -- Over/Under: 22
Johanna Konta and Karolina Pliskova meet in the final of the 2019 tennis Italian Open.
Johanna Konta is coming off a three sets win over Kiki Bertens that took 32 games to decide. In the victory, Konta won 65 percent of her first serve points and 46 percent of her second serve points. Konta won 58 percent of her total service points and converted on six of her nine break points. Konta dug deep after dropping the first set and managed to win a match that took nearly three hours to complete. Konta has now won 11 of her last 12 matches that have gone the distance and has produced a combined 11 breaks in her last two matches. Konta looks to win her first title since the 2017 Miami Open and the fourth title of her career. Konta has lost her last three final appearances and is 3-4 in career final appearances. Konta has never won a Premier 5 title in her career. Konta has won 10 of her last 12 matches on clay court.
Karolina Pliskova is coming off a straight sets win over Maria Sakkari that took 20 games to decide. In the victory, Pliskova won 76 percent of her first serve points and 50 percent of her second serve points. Pliskova won 66 percent of her total service points and converted on three of her five break points. Pliskova got 61 percent of her first serves in play and saved four of her five break points. Pliskova has hit a combined 25 aces in her last three matches, and when she’s hitting her spots like that, she’s one of the tougher players on tour to beat. Pliskova looks to win her second title of the year and her 13th title of her career. Pliskova has won eight of her last 12 final appearances overall and is 2-1 in final appearances on clay court. Pliskova is 1-1 in Premier 5 final appearances. Pliskova has won five of her last six matches on clay court.
These two have played five times and Pliskova won four of those matches. The most recent meeting was 2016 Beijing, a match Konta won in three sets. This will be the first meeting on clay and all previous five matches took three sets to be decided.
The h2h probably doesn’t mean a ton considering these two haven’t played in years and Konta is a better, more confident player at this stage of her career. Still, Pliskova has to have the edge in this match with the way she’s serving and the experience advantage. Konta is a highly skilled player who is in terrific form at the moment, but she hasn’t been on this stage very often and has struggled with her serve overall this tournament. It’s going to take a very clean performance to beat Pliskova with the way she’s serving, and she’s been broken six times in her last six sets.
I like Pliskova to win her second title of the year.