Novak Djokovic vs. Juan Martin Del Potro
|Date & Time||Sunday September 9, 2018, 11:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Djokovic -225 / Del Potro +185 -- Over/Under:
Juan Martin Del Potro and Novak Djokovic meet in the final of the 2018 tennis US Open.
Juan Martin Del Potro is coming off a straight sets win over Rafael Nadal that took 21 games to decide. In the victory, Del Potro won 70 percent of his first serve points and 55 percent of his second serve points. Del Potro won 65 percent of his total service points and hit 29 winners before Nadal was forced to retire due to a knee injury. Del Potro has been very sharp with his shotmaking ability and has been hitting the ball with tremendous pace. As long as Del Potro can continue to push his opponents round and control the points, he’s going to be a very tough out. Del Potro should also be extremely well rested considering he’s played just two hours since his Tuesday win over John Isner. Del Potro has now won 21 of his last 25 sets and is probably playing the best and most consistent tennis since his lengthy injury history. Del Potro hopes to win his third title of the year and his 23rd title of his career. Del Potro has a chance to win his second career grand slam title and the first since the 2009 US Open. Del Potro is 18-11 in career final appearances on hard court. Del Potro has won 11 of his last 13 matches on hard court.
Novak Djokovic is coming off a straight sets win over Kei Nishikori that took 27 games to decide. In the victory, Djokovic won 80 percent of his first serve points and 71 percent of his second serve points. Djokovic won 76 percent of his total service points and saved both of his break points. Djokovic has now won 13 straight sets and has been broken just twice in his last three matches. We know the defense and clean tennis always shows up with Djokovic, but when he’s serving at this level as well, he’s damn near impossible to beat. Djokovic looks for his third title of the year and his 71st title of his career. Djokovic has a chance to win his 14th career grand slam title and third at the US Open. Djokovic has won seven of his last nine grand slam final appearances, but he’s just 2-5 in final appearances at the US Open. Djokovic is 52-17 in final appearances overall on hard court. Djokovic has won 12 straight matches on hard court.
These two have played 18 times and Djokovic has won 14 of those matches. The most recent match was in the 2017 Rome Masters, a match Djokovic won in straight sets. Del Potro’s last win over Djokovic came in the 2016 olympics. Djokovic has won all six sets against Del Potro in the US Open. All four wins for Del Potro against Djokovic have come on hard court.
The easy pick here would be Djokovic based on how effective he’s been on hard court, the way he’s serving and the glaring head to head numbers. However, we’re getting almost two times our money with Del Potro, a guy who is playing possibly the best tennis of his life, has a strong support system in New York and is the fresher player. While Djokovic hasn’t been worked hard, Del Potro has played just two hours of tennis since Wednesday. There’s plenty in that big tank. Del Potro is also hitting with much more power, which will force Djokovic to play more defense and be in less control of key points.
If Del Potro is ever going to win another grand slam, it’s probably here. With the value, I’m siding with the big fella for the upset.