Dominic Thiem vs. Kevin Anderson
|Date & Time||Sunday November 11, 2018, 10:00 AM (EST)|
The Line: Kevin Anderson -105 / Dominic Thiem -120 -- Over/Under:
Kevin Anderson and Dominic Thiem meet in the round robin stages of the 2018 tennis ATP Finals.
Kevin Anderson is coming off a second match loss in the Paris Masters, but he’s in pretty good form overall, which includes him winning the title in Vienna. Anderson has really enjoyed the indoor court surface this season and has taken full advantage of his power serve, as he’s bombing away aces and rarely losing points on his first serve. As long as Anderson gets free points with his serve and gets in a rhythm, he’s capable of making a run at the title. The issue with Anderson is not getting his first serve in play and giving his opponent a chance to take control of the match by too many second serve looks. Anderson needs a fast start where he can go into cruise control. Anderson has won eight of his last 10 matches on indoor hard court.
Dominic Thiem is coming off a semifinal loss in Paris where he won just 49 percent of his total service points and was broken five times. Maybe fatigue caught up to Thiem given the amount of tennis he’s played since the US Open, or maybe it just wasn’t his day. Either way, Thiem has been one of the more consistent players the last couple of months, which includes winning 15 of his last 19 matches and showing an improved serve to go with his return skills. As long as Thiem is hitting the ball with pace and confidence, he’s going to give himself a real shot of winning this tournament with some of the top players in the world. Thiem has won five of his last seven matches on indoor hard court.
These two have played 10 times and Anderson has won eight of those matches. However, Thiem has won the last two meetings, including the most recent in this years US Open. Seven of the nine completed matches have been decided in straight sets.
Anderson owns the h2h, but Thiem has won the last two meetings and has done so in convincing fashion. Despite his most recent showing, Thiem has been the more consistent player as of late and I trust his return skills more. In a battle between two guys who can dial it in with their service game, I trust Thiem to do just enough with the return to pull away.
Thiem gets the nod.