Kiki Bertens vs. Naomi Osaka 5/17/19 Italian Open Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Kiki Bertens vs. Naomi Osaka
Friday, May 17, 2019 at 5:00 AM (Foro Italico)
The Line: Osaka -107 / Bertens -107 -- Over/Under: 21.5
Kiki Bertens and Naomi Osaka meet in the quarterfinal of the 2019 tennis Italian Open.
Kiki Bertens is coming off a three sets win over Carla Suarez-Navarro that took 26 games to decide. In the victory, Bertens won 69 percent of her first serve points and 49 percent of her second serve points. Bertens won 58 percent of her total service points and converted on four of her seven break points. Bertens won all six sets yesterday and struggled in her most recent performance, which included seven double faults and four breaks. It’s fair to question if fatigue is playing a part in Bertens run given all the matches she’s played up to this point. Still, Bertens is arguably the hottest player on the women’s side at the moment and has to be considered a big threat to win this title. Bertens has won each of her last eight matches on clay court.
Naomi Osaka is coming off a straight sets win over Mihaela Buzarnescu that took 18 games to decide. In the victory, Osaka won 88 percent of her first serve points and 61 percent of her second serve points. Osaka won 77 percent of her total service points and converted on four of her nine break points. Osaka hit a combined 21 aces and was broken just twice on nine break points in two victories yesterday. While Osaka hasn’t played 100 percent clean tennis, her serve has improved and she still has that power to get her out of trouble in key points. Osaka hopes to win three matches for the third tournament in her last eight tries. Osaka has won five of her last six matches on clay court.
These two have split their previous two matches, as Osaka won 2016 Acapulco in straight sets, while Bertens won 2018 Singapore in one set once Osaka retired. This is obviously the first meeting on clay.
This is a tough match considering Bertens is probably in better form, but fatigue could play a factor given they just played two matches yesterday. It’s probably an even bigger issue for Bertens, who already entered this tournament with a heavy workload. Whoever has the fresher legs will win this match, and while she’s had some issues here and there, Osaka probably has the edge in that department.
I’ll give the slight edge to Osaka to reach the semifinals.