Alexander Zverev vs. Kyle Edmund
|Date & Time||Friday October 12, 2018, 7:00 AM (EDT)|
The Line: Edmund +221 / Zverev -263 -- Over/Under:
Kyle Edmund and Alexander Zverev meet in the quarterfinals of the 2018 tennis Shanghai Masters.
Kyle Edmund is coming off a straight sets win over Nicolas Jarry that took 22 games to decide. In the victory, Edmund won 78 percent of his first serve points and 59 percent of his second serve points. Edmund won 71 percent of his total service points and saved four of his five break points. Edmund continues to serve at a high level, which has opened up the rest of his game and allowed him to get three breaks in each of his last three matches. As Edmund pushes for a possible top-10 spot in the world, he’s now won 12 of his last 16 sets and is really enjoying the fast hard courts in China. Edmund has a chance to win four matches in a single tournament for the first time since Marrakech back in April. Edmund has won six of his last seven matches on hard court.
Alexander Zverev is coming off a straight sets win over Alex De Minaur that took 17 games to decide. In the victory, Zverev won 82 percent of his first serve points and 61 percent of his second serve points. Zverev won 75 percent of his total service points and saved all five of his break points. Zverev has now been broken once on his last 10 break points and has looked more like the player we saw earlier in the season. Zverev had a brief period where he cooled off quickly after making ridiculously deep tournament runs on a consistent basis, and you have to wonder if some of the rest since the US Open has helped. In fact, Zverev has now won back-to-back straight set matches for the first time since his opening matches at the US Open. Zverev has won five of his last seven matches on hard court.
These two have played three times and Zverev has won all three matches. The most recent match was in Rome of this year, a match Zverev won in straight sets. Edmund has won just one set against Zverev, which was in their first meeting in 2016, a match he was forced to retire in the third set.
Edmund has the ability to beat Zverev and has enjoyed these hard courts the last couple of weeks. However, when Zverev is playing to his ability and not piling up games with unforced errors and silly mistakes, he’s one of the best players in the world and somebody I’m not trying to step in front of. Zverev has won his last two matches in straight sets and is showing signs of returning to the player he was before that minor slump, as he gears up for the ATP Finals.
I’m backing Zverev here.