Madison Keys vs. Elise Mertens - 01/18/19 WTA Tour - Australian Open Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Madison Keys vs. Elise Mertens
Friday, January 18, 2019 at 7:00 PM (Melbourne Park)
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Madison Keys and Elise Mertens meet in the third round of the 2019 tennis Australian Open.
Madison Keys is coming off a straight sets win over Anastasia Potapova that took 19 games to decide. In the victory, Keys won 78 percent of her first serve points and 28 percent of her second serve points. Keys won 61 percent of her total service points and saved six of her eight break points. Keys can obviously improve her second serve and clean up her unforced errors, but even with those struggles, she’s lost just 11 games in her first four sets. Keeping the unforced errors under 20 would make Keys a legit threat to win this tournament in what feels like a wide open field on the women’s side. Keys hopes to make the fourth round of a grand slam for the 11th time in her last 14 tries. Keys has won seven of her last 10 matches on hard court.
Elise Mertens is coming off a straight sets win over Margarita Gasparyan that took 19 games to decide. In the victory, Mertens won 79 percent of her first serve points and 42 percent of her second serve points. Mertens won 65 percent of her total service points and saved five of her seven break points. Mertens has won all four of her sets this tournament and is getting a large number of her first serves in play. While the second serve has come and gone, Mertens limits her opponents chances at a breakthrough when she’s getting 63 percent or higher of her first serves in play. Mertens hopes to make the fourth round of a grand slam for the fourth time in her career. Mertens made the fourth round of a grand slam in three of four tournaments last year. Mertens has won six of her last nine matches on hard court.
These two have played once, which was in the 2017 US Open, a match Keys won in straight sets. The match took 22 games to be decided.
This will be a fun match between two players who can spray winners and redirect the ball with the best of them. The difference for me is the power of Keys and her more reliable serve. While Mertens is consistent and gets the ball in play, she has to work much harder to hold serve and isn’t blowing anybody away. With the power of Keys in all areas of her game, she’ll control majority of these points and pounce on any openings. If said many times in the past, Keys controls the outcome of most matches as long as she doesn’t pile up the unforced errors.
I like Keys to advance to the fourth round of the Australian Open.