Osaka vs. Keys
|Date & Time||Friday June 1, 2018, 11:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka meet in the third round of the 2018 tennis French Open.
Madison Keys is coming off a straight sets win over Caroline Dolehide that took 17 games to decide. In the victory, Keys won 66 percent of her first serve points and 62 percent of her second serve points. Keys won 64 percent of her total first serve points and was broken just once. Keys also had just 20 unforced errors, a number that’s always key with her given her power and ability to go for broke so often. As long as Keys can limit the mistakes and hit far more winners than errors, she has a shot to beat anybody any given match. Keys hopes to make the fourth round of a grand slam for the 10th time in her last 13 appearances. Keys has won four of her last five matches on clay court.
Naomi Osaka is coming off a straight sets win over Zarina Diyas that took 22 games to decide. In the victory, Osaka won 79 percent of her first serve points and 57 percent of her second serve points. Osaka was dominant with her first serve, dropping just eight of 39 points and hitting four aces. If Osaka is going to be that clean while hitting 34 winners, she’s going to be a tough out for anybody left in the field. The issue for Osaka is always the nerves, as she allows mistakes to linger too often and can easily throw a whole match away if she’s not careful. Osaka hopes to make the fourth round of a grand slam for the second time in her career. Osaka has split her last six matches on clay court.
These two have played twice and Keys won both meetings. The most recent match was in the 2017 Indian Wells Masters, a match Keys won in both sets. The other match took place in the 2016 US Open, a match made that historic comeback in and won in three sets.
You can make a case for either of these young players and their games are so similar. Both have extreme power and can spray winners across the court. Wherever makes the less unforced errors is probably your winner. I’m giving the edge to Osaka. Despite coming up small on the big stage, she has played cleaner tennis this season and is easier to trust in terms of more winners than errors. Also, this is a bit of a revenge match for Osaka, as the loss to Keys in 2016 brought her to tears. She’s a much better and more mature player at this stage.
I give the slight, slight edge to Osaka.