Milos Raonic vs. Alexander Zverev - 01/20/19 ATP Tour - Australian Open Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Milos Raonic vs. Alexander Zverev
Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 7:00 PM (Melbourne Park)
The Line: -- Over/Under:
TV: ESPN, Tennis
Milos Raonic and Alexander Zverev meet in the fourth round of the 2019 tennis Australian Open.
Milos Raonic is coming off a straight sets win over Pierre-Hugues Herbert that took 33 games to decide. In the victory, Raonic won 85 percent of his first serve points and 62 percent of his second serve points. Raonic won 78 percent of his total service points and converted on three of his four break points. Raonic also had 51 winners to just 12 unforced errors, putting together a flawless match that lasted a little over two hours. If Raonic is capable of playing at that level moving forward, he gives himself an honest chance to make a run at the title. Raonic’s recent performance was as good as any showing in this tournament, so he should be incredibly confident right now. Raonic hopes to make his ninth career grand slam quarterfinal and his fourth at the Australian Open. Raonic is 8-8 in career grand slam fourth round matches. Raonic has won five of his last six matches on hard court.
Alexander Zverev is coming off a straight sets win over Alex Bolt that took 26 games to decide. In the victory, Zverev won 70 percent of his first serve points and 63 percent of his second serve points. Zverev won 68 percent of his total service points and produced six breaks on 12 break points. Zverev had a much cleaner match than his previous two showings, and he won his third round match in under two hours. Zverev is still giving his opponents too many looks at break points, but you have to like him getting a number number of his first serves in play and the fact he’s consistently getting double-digit aces. Zverev hopes to make his second career grand slam quarterfinal and first since last years French Open. Zverev has won nine of his last 12 matches on hard court.
These two have split the previous two meetings, as Zverev won the 2017 match in Rome and Raonic won the 2017 match in the Wimbledon. The Wimbledon match was decided in five sets and Zverev’s win on clay was decided in straight sets.
Many consider this to be the year Zverev finally breaks through and makes a deep run in a grand slam. Zverev is more than capable of getting it done and is a player who is tough to bet against when he’s got his complete game going. The issue is Zverev is still inconsistent and has a history of not only being shaky on the big stage but also coming up small against top tier players. Zverev had to work hard to beat Chardy and didn’t dominate Bolt the way you thought he would despite what the score said. Raonic has his serve working and is coming off an overwhelming performance. Raonic has also developed a track record in grand slam play, so he’s a bit more trustworthy on the big stage.
This match could obviously go either way, but my money will be on Raonic.