Busta vs. Raonic
|Date & Time||Sunday June 4, 2017, 9:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Busta +165 / Raonic -175 -- Over/Under:
Milos Raonic and Pablo Carreno Busta meet in the fourth round of the 2017 French Open.
Milos Raonic is coming off a two set win over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez that took eight games to decide. In the victory, Raonic won 93 percent of his first serve points and 60 percent of his second serve points. Raonic will have a nice little rest advantage after having to play just eight games before Garcia-Lopez retired. Even in such little playing time, Raonic has racked up 40 aces in his first three matches and has only been broken twice, putting a ton of pressure on his opponent to play flawless tennis. Raonic hopes to make a grand slam quarterfinal for seventh time in his career. Raonic has won seven of his last nine matches on clay court.
Pablo Carreno Busta is coming off a straight sets win over Grigor Dimitrov that took 31 games to decide. In the victory, Carreno Busta won 69 percent of his first serve points and 60 percent of his second serve points. Carreno Busta cruised ast a top-15 player without much effort and has now won 12 of his last 15 sets on clay. If Carreno Busta can continue to serve at such a high level, he’ll have a chance to make an even deeper run. Carreno Busta hopes to make a grand slam quarterfinal for the first time in his career. This is the first time Carreno Busta has ever been in a grand slam fourth round. Carreno Busta has won eight of his last 10 matches on clay court.
Raonic has won all three previous meetings against Carreno Busta with the most recent match coming in the 2016 Paris Masters. This will be the first time these two meet on clay.
We’re getting the rested, more consistent, better overall player in Raonic with a line under -200. That's a seal in my eyes, especially when you factor in the head to head where Raonic has cruised past Carreno Busta without much of a fight. Yes, clay is not Raonic’s best surface and he's made the quarterfinals for the French Open just once before, but that's more than we can say about Carreno Busta. As long as Raonic continues to serve the way he has, he’ll be fine.
I like Raonic in four sets.