Anastasija Sevastova vs. Naomi Osaka
|Date & Time||Friday October 5, 2018, 11:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Naomi Osaka and Anastasija Sevastova meet in the semifinals of the 2018 tennis China Open.
Naomi Osaka is coming off a three sets win over Shuai Zhang that took 31 games to decide. In the victory, Osaka won 76 percent of her first serve points and 36 percent of her second serve points. Osaka won 54 percent of her total service points and produced six breaks on 18 break points. At times it looked like Osaka was going to blow the match, as she was down a set and a break at one point. Osaka clearly didn’t play her best match and made a ton of silly errors, but the victory shows her growth, and the best players in the world find ways to win even when they may not have it that day. Osaka has clearly grown up in all areas of her game and no longer throws matches away. Osaka has a chance to make her fourth final appearance of the season and her fifth final appearance of her career. Osaka has won 11 straight matches on hard court.
Anastasija Sevastova is coming off a straight sets win over Dominika Cibulkova that took 22 games to decide. In the victory, Sevastova won 60 percent of her first serve points and 52 percent of her second serve points. Sevastova won 57 percent of her total service points and produced five breaks on eight break points. Sevastova has yet to drop a set this tournament and just grinded out a straight sets win that took almost two hours to complete. Sevastova has been aggressive with her return recently, producing a combined 15 breaks in her last six sets. Sevastova has eight career wins over top-10 players, three of which have come this year. Sevastova has a chance to make her third final appearance of the season and her seventh final appearance of her career. Sevastova has won nine of her last 11 matches on hard court.
These two have split the only two meetings, as Osaka won in Toronto in 2017, and Sevastova won in Doha of this year. Both matches were decided in straight sets.
You can make a strong case for either side, but betting against Osaka isn’t an option for me, as I’ve said for months now. Osaka has been the most consistent and dominant player for quite some time and seems to be getting better and more confident. Yes, Osaka didn’t play well in her last match, but there’s nothing to suggest she’ll be sloppy again, and her power is the difference here. Also, Sevastova hasn’t been serving well and has relied heavily on her return to get back in matches. Osaka doesn’t give many second chances and will bury Sevastova if she’s not on her game.
Osaka makes another final.