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Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem 5/11/19 Madrid Open Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem
Date & Time Saturday May 11, 2019, 10:00 AM (EDT)
Park Manzanares
Madrid, Spain
The Line
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Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem meet in the semifinals of the 2019 tennis Madrid Open.

Novak Djokovic is coming off a walkover win over Marin Cilic, who was forced to withdraw from the tournament due to food poisoning. Djokovic was already serving at a high level and had to play less than three hours to get to this point, so he’s in great form and well rested, which is a scary combination for one of the best in the world. Djokovic has saved all five of his break points and looks like a completely different player who entered this tournament in somewhat shaky form. However, this match is a much bigger test for Djokovic than his last two opponents were. Djokovic hopes to make his second final of the year and his 107 final appearance of his career. Djokovic also hopes to make the final of the Madrid Open for the third time in his career. Djokovic has won five of his last six matches on clay court.

Dominic Thiem is coming off a three sets win over Roger Federer that took 32 games to decide. In the victory, Thiem won 81 percent of his first serve points and 55 percent of his second serve points. Thiem won 73 percent of his total service points and converted on two of his 12 break points. Thiem managed to grind out a victory after dropping the first set, and he was quite impressive with getting 70 percent of his first serves in play and giving himself so many break points against a Federer who entered this match serving extremely well. It’s a win that should give Thiem a new level of confidence. Thiem hopes to make his third final of the year and his 21st final appearance of his career. Thiem also hopes to make the final of the Madrid Open for a third straight year. Thiem has won each of his last eight matches on clay court.

These two have played eight times and Djokovic has won six of those matches. Thiem won the most recent match last year in Monte Carlo and is 2-2 against Djokovic on clay. Six of the eight matches have been decided in straight sets.

Djokovic has a serious rest advantage and is tough to bet against regardless of surface or opponent when he’s playing well. It’s also a treat whenever you can get a Djokovic-Nadal final, and that’s a possibility here. With that said, Thiem is much more comfortable on clay and is playing his best tennis of the year with eight straight wins on this surface. As long as Thiem is going to get his first serves in play and put pressure on Djokovic, he has to have the slight edge.

I like Thiem to make the final of Madrid for the third straight year.

Dominic Thiem

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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