Daria Kasatkina vs. Ons Jabeur
|Date & Time||Saturday October 20, 2018, 6:00 AM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Ons Jabeur and Daria Kasatkina meet in the final of the 2018 tennis Kremlin Cup.
Ons Jabeur is coming off a three sets win over Anastasija Sevastova that took 27 games to decide. In the victory, Jabeur won 80 percent of her first serve points and 35 percent of her second serve points. Jabeur won 59 percent of her total service oitns and produced five breaks on nine break points. Jabeur has now won three straight matches as an underdog and all three of those wins came against top-25 players. This run has come out of nowhere considering Jabeur had to win three matches just to qualify for this tournament and has had little success on the main stage throughout her career. A win here would easily be the highlight of Jabeur’s career so far at 24 years old. Jabeur has a chance to wi her first ever WTA singles title, and this is her first career final appearance. Jabeur has won seven straight matches on indoor hard court.
Daria Kasatkina is coming off a straight sets win over Johanna Konta that took 19 games to decide. In the victory, Kasatkina won 67 percent of her first serve points and 47 percent of her second serve points. Kasatkina won 63 percent of her total service points and produced four breaks on 14 break points. Kasatkina has improved her serve each match in this tournament and has now won eight of her last nine sets played. With double-digit break points forced in three of her four matches, Kasatkina has to like her chances to win this title if she can win 65 percent or better of her total service points, a percentage she’s inched closer and closer to each time she takes the court. Kasatkina looks to win her first title since the 2017 Volvo Car Open. Kasatkina has lost her last three final appearances and is 0-3 in her career in final appearances on hard court. Kasatkina has won seven of her last eight matches on indoor hard court.
These two have played once, which was in the 2016 olympics, a match Kasatkina won in three sets. The match took 29 games to be decided.
Nobody can write Jabeur off at this point given the level of competition she’s beaten to get to this point. You don’t beat three straight top-25 players on accident. Jabeur deserves credit and some consideration for a wager here. However, Kasatkina is kind of due for another title under her belt, and she’s improved her serve in each of her last three matches. With her return consistent, Kasatkina is slowly becoming a more consistent, balanced player as the days go by. And while her run has been impressive, yo have to wonder when the Cinderella run for Jabeur comes to an end.
I’m siding with Kasatkina to win this match.