Goffin vs. Nadal
|Date & Time||Monday November 13, 2017, 3:00 PM (EST)|
The Line: Goffin +350 / Nadal -500 -- Over/Under:
Rafael Nadal and David Goffin meet in the 2017 ATP World Tour Finals.
Rafael Nadal is coming off a three sets win over Pablo Cuevas that took 31 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 72 percent of his first serve points and 69 percent of his second serve points. Nadal pulled out of his quarterfinal match in the Paris Masters due to a right knee injury. Nadal’s camp says it was only to make sure he’s fresh for this tournament and Sky Sports commentator Barry Cowan also believes it isn’t that big of an issue. Regardless, it is something to keep an eye on as play begins. Besides his health, Nadal has had one of his better seasons recently, racking up a 67-10 record and 40-8 overall on hard court. As long as Nadal is healthy, he’s considered one of the favorites to win the ATP Finals, but that’s only if there’s no more knee discomfort. Nadal has won 13 of his last 15 matches on hard court.
David Goffin is coming off a straight sets loss to Julien Benneteau that took 18 games to decide. In the loss, Goffin won 59 percent of his first serve points and 58 percent of his second serve points. Goffin is in his second ATP Finals and hopes to be the dark horse who can make it out of the round robin play. Goffin has four victories over top-10 players this season and just won two titles during the Asia run, so he’s in terrific form at the moment. As long as Goffin is hitting his spots on his serve and not giving away sloppy points, he gives himself a chance. It’s when Goffin is struggling to get quality serves in play is when he struggles to win matches. Goffin has won five of his last eight matches on hard court.
These two have played twice and Nadal has won both meetings in straight sets. Both matches took place this year in the Madrid Masters and Monte Carlo Masters. This will obviously be their first match on hard court.
Nadal has never won the ATP World Tour Finals, so he’s going to be motivated to get this thing done with no Djokovic or Andy Murray in the field. As long as the knee isn’t the issue, you have to like his chances. He’s hitting the ball very well, continues to be extremely effective with his return and seems motivated to position himself nicely for the 2018 season. Goffin has had no success against Nadal when they played twice this year, and he’s sure to have issues with Nadal’s return.
Assuming Nadal isn’t hurt, he wins this match.