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Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem 6/9/19 French Open Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem
Date & Time Sunday June 9, 2019, 9:00 AM (EDT)
Location
Roland Garros Stadium
Paris, France
The Line
The Line: -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
Tennis, NBC
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Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem meet in the final of the 2019 tennis French Open.

Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Roger Federer that took 27 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 68 percent of his first serve points and 56 percent of his second serve points. Nadal won 66 percent of his total service points and converted on six of his 16 break points. Nadal got 82 percent of his first serves in play and saved two of his four break points. Nadal had just 19 unforced errors to 33 winners, which is highly impressive given how windy it was. Winning each of his last 10 sets, Nadal seems to have everything going for him heading into this final match. Nadal hopes to win his 12th career French Open title and his 18th career grand slam title. Nadal has never lost a final appearance in the French Open and has won seven of his last 10 grand slam final appearances overall. A win here also gives Nadal his second title of the year and his 82nd title of his career. Nadal has won each of his last 11 matches on clay court.

Dominic Thiem is coming off a five sets win over Novak Djokovic that took 53 games to decide. In the victory, Thiem won 65 percent of his first serve points and 59 percent of his second serve points. Thiem won 63 percent of his total service points and converted on nine of his 22 break points. Thiem got 69 percent of his first serves in play and saved five of his 12 break points. Thiem has now lost at least one set in four of his six matches, but he’s been able to figure things out and play his best tennis down the stretch to close the deal. Question now is, how much does Thiem have left in the tank on a quick turnaround. Thiem hopes to win his first career grand slam title, as he’s 0-1 in previous final appearances. Thiem hopes to win his third title of the year and his 14th title of his career overall. Thiem is 9-6 in career final appearances on clay. Thiem has won 10 of his last 12 matches on clay court.

These two have played 12 times and Nadal has won eight of those matches. The most recent match was this year in Barcelona, a match Thiem won in straight sets. Thiem has actually won four meetings against Nadal on clay, but Nadal still leads the series 7-4 on this surface. Ten of the 12 meetings have been decided in straight sets.

Thiem is more than capable of getting the job done here given his success on clay and having the confidence of beating Nadal multiple times on this surface, including the most recent match this year. The problem is there’s a major advantage for Nadal in terms of rest, as Thiem just played over four hours and wasn’t able to enjoy a full days rest due to constant rain delays. Nadal is also 11-0 in final appearances at the French Open and is 58-8 in career final appearances on clay court overall. That’s a 87.8 winning percentage for those of you at home keeping score. It’s tough to bet against Nadal in these spots, and the rest advantage makes Nadal an even stronger favorite. Nadal also knows these conditions better than anybody, so I trust him more given the wind/rain we've been dealing with these past few days.

Nadal wins his 12th French Open title.

Pick:
Rafael Nadal

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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