Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini 4/20/19 Monte Carlo Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini
Saturday, April 20, 2019 at 8:30 AM (Monte-Carlo Country Club)
The Line: -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds
Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini meet in the semifinal of the 2019 tennis Monte Carlo.
Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Guido Pella that took 22 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 58 percent of his first serve points and 44 percent of his second serve points. Nadal won 53 percent of his total service points and converted on seven of his 13 breaks. Nadal can obviously serve better than what he did in the quarterfinals, but he has won all six sets this tournament and has produced a combined 16 breaks. Nadal has also won each of his last 15 sets on clay, so there’s good reason why the Spaniard is the heavy favorite to win this tournament. Nadal hopes to make is second final appearance of the year and his 118th final appearance of his career. Nadal also looks for his fourth straight final appearance in Monte Carlo and for the 13th time overall. Nadal has won 22 of his last 23 matches on clay court.
Fabio Fognini is coming off a three sets win over Borna Coric that took 24 games to decide. In the victory, Fognini won 67 percent of his first serve points and 43 percent of his second serve points. Fognini won 59 percent of his total service points and converted on four of his six breaks. Fognini showed great fight after dropping the opening set 1-6 and winning just 39 percent of his total service points. It was rather surprising from Fognini considering he does have a history of letting poor points get the best of him and allowing his game to get away from him at times. Fognini has 13 career wins over top-10 players, with three of those wins coming since last year. Fognini hopes to make his first final appearance since last years Chengdu Open and the 19th final appearance of his career. Fognini hopes to make his first career final appearance in a Masters 1000 and is 0-2 previous semifinal appearances. Fognini has won four of his last five matches on clay court.
These two have played 14 times and Nadal has won 11 of those matches. The most recent match was in Rome of 2018, a match Nadal won in straight sets. Nadal has won six straight matches against Fognini, with the last loss coming in the 2015 US Open. Nadal is 6-2 against Fognini on clay court and nine of the matches overall have been decided in straight sets.
Fognini has beat some respectable competition to get to this point and has some success against Nadal to give him confidence here. The problem is betting against Nadal on clay doesn’t put money in your pocket, as he’s won 22 of his last 23 matches on this surface and has won 15 straight sets. Just don’t do it.
Nadal makes the final of Monte Carlo for the 13th time in his career.